15 January 2009
Experts James Lindsay and John Fortier Discuss Transition 2009
CO.NX Global Forum transcript, January 15
Political experts Dr. James M. Lindsay and Dr. John Fortier answered questions in a January 15 webchat on the 2009 presidential transition, the transition process, globalization, national security and election reform.
Following is the transcript:
(begin transcript)
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of International Information Programs
Webchat Transcript
CO.NX Global Forum: Transition 2009
Guest: James Lindsay and John Fortier
Date: January 15, 2009
Time: 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT)
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: YOUR QUESTIONS FOR THE Q/A SESSION GO HERE
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Q/A will begin in just a minute.
Webchat Moderator [Tim]: We'd like to welcome Dr. James Lindsay and Dr. John Fortier -- our experts for today's Question and Answer session on the Obama transition.
Comment [Denis Cenusa]: hello, once again
Comment [ircabidjan2]: Hi!
Comment [gamze güngörmü? Kona]: hi
Comment [k bahalei]: Hello!
Comment [ircabidjan4]: hi
Comment [Martin AND Martha]: welcome james lindsay
Comment [James Lindsay]: Hello, everyone. I'm looking forward to our chat. Please forgive any typing mistakes.
Comment [Ircabidjan]: hello
Comment [John Fortier]: Hello from John Fortier, glad to be with you. Looking forward to getting started shortly.
Comment [axi_bis]: hello everyone
Comment [Martin AND Martha]: Everybody seems to be asking questions. I just want say, thumbs up Obama.
Comment [jane]: hello every one! Nice to see you here!
Question [hamletmix]: The Office of Government Ethics [OGE], a small agency within the executive branch, was established by the Ethics in Government Act of 1978.What are the roles of the Office of Governmental Ethics in Transition Process?
Answer [John Fortier]: The Office of Government Ethics is an important agency monitoring the financial and other conflicts that political appointees may have. The U.S. system brings in many people to government from the private sector. These political appointees are asked to disclose their finances and potential conflicts of interest. The Office of Government Ethics uses that information to determine whether the appointee might have to sell stock in certain companies, or not work on certain matters in government, or disclose relationships before working on particular matters.
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Our guest speakers are now reviewing your questions!
Q [gamze güngörmü? Kona]: is turkey still an important NATO ally for the U.S.?
A [James Lindsay]: Yes. You can expect to see the Obama administration put some effort to improving ties with Turkey, both because of Ankara's importance in NATO and because of its importance in the Middle East.
Comment [Agnes]: Hello everyone
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: HI everyone. Just a quick update...Dr. Fortier is online and we are getting him set up to answer your questions. Thanks for your patience!
Q [jane]: what will obama do first among so many issues?
A [John Fortier]: Jane: Good question. You are right to surmise that a new president cannot tackle all of his or her priorities at once. In fact past presidents have stumbled because they tried to do too much at once. The answer to your question for Obama is an easy one. The financial crisis has made the question of economic stimulus the number one issue for everyone. Before the fall financial crisis, Obama might have had health care reform as one of his first major initiatives, or energy or education. But now the stimulus package is job one. There was some early talk that Congress might be able to quickly write a stimulus package and have it ready for President Obama to sign when he takes office on January 20th. But that was a very unrealistic timeframe for a big and complicated bill that will involve tax cuts, spending on infrastructure, some spending on health, energy, unemployment benefits and aid to the states. The talk is now that the stimulus package might get done in February, but you can imagine that there will be significant congressional hearings on the parts of the bill and significant debate over its provisions.
Comment [Joe Makulila and Novice Mulembe]: comment. I think America has shown a very good example of how democracy should be the world has learnt real equality, that doesn’t consider race.
Q [angoran]: did a troubled transition ever happen in the US president history
A [John Fortier]: Angoran: We have had a number of troubled transitions in our history. America is different from much of the world in that we have a long period of transition from the election until the new president take office, from early November to January 20th. When Lincoln won the election, the south began to secede from the Union leading to the civil war. The Hoover to Franklin Roosevelt transition occurred at a time of the great depression where a bad economy was getting even worse. There was a danger that huge portions of our banking system would collapse on the day that FDR took office. We have also had election disputes. You recall 2000 when the Bush gore election was not decided until over a month after election day. In 1876, we had an even more contentious election that was not decided until just a couple of days before the election.
Q [IRC Abidjan1]: can you tell us a bit about Barack Obama's nuclear programme?
A [Jim Lindsay]: President-Elect Obama has said his goal is a world without nuclear weapons. That is a very ambitious goal, however, and we are not likely to see it achieved during Obama’s administration. You will see his administration working to 1.) make it harder for terrorists to get their hands on nuclear materials; 2.) strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; 3.) persuade the U.S. Senate to provide its advise and consent to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; 4.) negotiate a revised Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia; and 5.) negotiate a verifiable global ban on the production of new nuclear weapons materials. That’s an ambitious agenda, especially given how many other foreign and domestic policy problems the Obama administration faces.
Q [thierno mamadou oury diallo]: will president obama change ambassadors for the next couple years
A [Jim Lindsay]: Yes. Ambassadors traditionally tender their resignations effective January 20. The incoming administration can decide to keep an ambassador on, or more commonly, nominate a replacement.
Q [ircabidjan5]: tell us about the transition process in general?
A [Jim Lindsay]: The President-elect has to fill several thousand posts. He is most directly involved in selecting White House officials and Cabinet officials. He (and someday she) has to balance a lot of considerations in making selections: expertise, political savvy, ease to work with, ability to be confirmed (for posts requiring confirmation), closeness to the president's own views, along with a host of demographic considerations. (Presidents want to have an administration that looks like America.)
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: There are already hundreds of questions in so please be patient and understanding if your question does not appear.
Q [ircabidjan]: Is there an implicit link between the Israel attacks against hamas and the transition?
A [Jim Lindsay]: We don't know. Lots of speculation among political commentators. But nobody knows.
Q [ML Chan]: Is the stimulus package designed to create jobs or to hand out subsidies? We do not want to subsidize the business losers just because they were short sighted or they made wrong business decisions.
A [Jim Lindsay]: The stimulus package will be designed to create jobs but it would probably end up doing both. It's almost inevitable. To get bills passed you have to make them attractive to lots of people on Capitol Hill. That increases the chances that not all programs will get funded on the merits.
A [John Fortier]: Let me add something to what Jim said about the transition process The American transition is a long process. Even before the election, both presidential candidates are planning for transition. The main reason for early planning is to think about the personnel that will come into a new administration. Unlike many countries we bring in over 3000 political appointees from outside of government to work in the new administration. The top four levels of each cabinet department are political appointees not career civil servants and these people must be found, interviewed, checked out, and in some cases over 600 will also face hearings and a vote in the U.S. Senate. In addition to the departments, almost all of the personnel at the White house, the closest advisers to the president must be found and a team assembled very quickly. Presidents also plan for what their initial legislative agenda will be. A new president has the attention of congress at least for the first six months, so it is important for him to f
Q [Denis Cenusa]: Could you develop the Obama's ideas on fighting against terrorism?
A [Jim Lindsay]: Obama's strategy essentially will be to lower the U.S. profile in Iraq, to reinvigorate the Middle East peace process, and go after Al Qaeda and its affiliates wherever they may be. The idea is to lower anger toward the United States, which helps jihadists recruit, and focus action more tightly on those who want to commit acts of terror.
Q [Abidjan]: Will Hillary Clinton be a good Secretary of State?
A [Jim Lindsay]: My guess is yes, but you don't know how any secretary of state will fare until they are in office. The United States has had a lot of secretaries of state who came in with good reputations and left with a lowered reputation.
Q [hamletmix]: The inauguration date of the United State of America's President was held on March 4, but since 1937 they have been held on January 20.What is the importance of this date?
A [John Fortier]: The original date of our inauguration was March 4, so the transition period was even longer. This was changed by the twentieth amendment to our constitution which moved the day of the inauguration to January 20th. The first president to be sworn in on January 20th was Franklin Roosevelt in 1937. The amendment also changed the day that Congress begins. It now begins January 3rd. it used to be that the president would start in march, but the Congress would not come into session until December.
Q [ircabidjan]: Was the choice of Hillary Clinton as secretary of state a way to reconcile all the democrates?
A [Jim Lindsay]: That calculation probably played a role. How big a role? I don't know. But Senator Clinton brings a lot of positives to the job, positives that will help Barack Obama. She has visibility, credibility, and smarts. Those attributes probably played the deciding role.
Q [ircabidjan]: will the man of people John McCain be associated to the Obama`s administration?
A [Jim Lindsay]: No. Senator McCain will be in the Senate. He might work with the Obama administration on some issues (e.g., climate change), but that's it.
Q [Abidjan]: will Barack be a good President?
A [Jim Lindsay]: All Americans hope so. The problems are too big, and the costs of a failed presidency too high, to think otherwise. But the fact the problems are so large makes it harder to succeed.
Q [Sam]: What happens to the nominee for Commerce Secretary's position?
Q [ircabidjan5]: will Hillary Clinton's nomination to the post of secretary of state create or generate a problem of leadership inside democratic party?
A [Jim Lindsay]: No. Barack Obama is now the unquestioned leader of the Democratic Party. The only thing that will change that is if Obama's presidency is unsuccessful.
Webchat Moderator [Tim]: Visit our Facebook site at http://co-nx.state.gov for a list of all upcoming online programs.
Webchat Moderator [Tim]: You can also follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/conx
Q [ircabidjan]: How do European aprehende the trade policy with Obama`s administration?
A [John Fortier]: Europe was worried when during the presidential primaries, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama expressed some protectionist sentiments. Most Democratic presidents in the past have been generally in favor of free trade, and it looks as if Obama's later positions are more favorable to trade than his earlier comments. But free trade is less popular in the public than it was fifteen years ago, and there are protectionist sentiments in the congress that might make a free trade agenda difficult
Q [GANDHI]: Pakistan is a failed state which contends that, it has no effective control over TWO [North western Frontier Province and Baluchistan] out of FOUR provinces it has. Its neuclear scientist KHAN was found to have leaked neuclear technoligy to rouges like North Korea. How does President OBAMA propose to ensure that, PAKISTAN'S neuuclear arsenal does not fall in the hands of BIN LADEN camping in the vicinity? What are the chances of next terrorist attack [GOD FORBID] in USA would contain a neauclear devise from such unstable state?
A [Jim Lindsay]: I wouldn't go so far as to say that Pakistan is a failed state, but it certainly has problems, as Pakistani leaders admit. Your question about the vulnerability of the Pakistani arsenal is a good one, and how the Obama administration would handle that threat is something it won't discuss in public. David Sanger of the New York Times had a good article on just how tough this problem is in last Sunday's New York Times Magazine.
Webchat Moderator [Melanie]: You can read the article here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/magazine/11pakistan-t.html?_r=1
Comment [ircabidjan4]: we be very pleased to be with you, thanks for all your answers and see you, god bless cote d'ivoire and america.
Comment [ircabidjan5]: we ha been very delighted ti be with you on line, than for having accepted to give satifaction to our question god bless ivory coast and may god bless you
Comment [ircabidjan1]: see you soon
Q [ircabidjan4: why has obama's reform to save "general motors" been rejected by the congress. isn't this rejection due to leadership question, we mean would congress reject it if it were from bush or another white president
A [Jim Lindsay]: Many members of Congress thought that GM was/is a badly run company that had no sensible plan for how it would use a government bailout. So they thought any federal loans would be money wasted.
Q [Abidjan]: who replaced the Secretary of Commerce Bill Richardson?
A [Jim Lindsay]: I don't think Obama has announced a replacement yet.
Q [Abidjan]: will the trouble of the Secretary of Finance of the Administration Barack Obama, cause a problem as far as the transition is concerned?
A [John Fortier]: The nominee for Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner has faced some questions about his payment of taxes. While somewhat embarrassing for him, as he will be in charge of our tax agency, the IRS, it is unlikely that this will derail his nomination. The offense is relatively minor and unintentional, and Geithner has great respect from both Republicans and Democrats in Congress, so I expect him to be the next Treasury Secretary.
Q [ircabidjan5]: could you please tell us wether or not the deeds of bush will impact obama's rule?
A [Jim Lindsay]: Yes. That's inescapable. Presidents don't come to office with a blank slate. They inherit all the problems (and successes) that the previous president left behind.
Comment [Eliance RATOVOSON]: Even if the envy to stay with you waiting for the answers of my questions is relevant, I am sorry to leave you because I have another imperative videoconference to be assisted. What a pity!. Bye! Thank you
Q [Jim Lindsay]: what's the question?
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Dr. Lindsay...Eliance had asked: "Is politic of the United States against the terrorism will still be so fervent and expensive?"
Q [ALLAN CHIRWA]: Hi, what messures has Barack Obama has put inplace to over come the financial crisis in the world
A [Jim Lindsay]: President-elect Obama hasn't put any measures in place yet because he is not yet president and has no authority to do anything yet. He has urged President Bush to request the second half of the $700 billion bailout. Once in office you can expect the Obama administration to spend a lot of money to keep U.S. banks and brokerages afloat. The bad news seems to keep coming.
Q [gamze güngörmü Kona]: sure, you will answer my other 3 questions . "now or never..."
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Gamze, our speakers are trying to answer as many as possible.
Q [solo RNM]: Good morning, I am journalist from National Radio in Madagascar, I would like to ask the last issue on the place where the Guatanamo prisoners will be relocated, given that President Obama has pledged to close down this detention center and the Australian government also denied to take them? Thank you.
A [John Fortier]: We don’t know the answer as to what will happen to all of the prisoners at Guantanamo. President Obama pledged to close Guantanamo, but he recently acknowledged that it will be more difficult to do so than he had originally anticipated. He now projects it may take a year to close. Some of the prisoners may be held in another status or tried in the court system, and some may go to other countries. This is an issue that Obama will likely have to deal with sooner than he may want because our court system may force him to make quick decisions on individual prisoners who have petitioned our courts. It will also be an early test of Obama’s diplomacy skills if he persuades other countries to take some of these detainees.
Q [max[zambia]]: what is obama's plans over the 106 years old american who casted her vote last year after a long time of passing through thick and thin of hwer life and just having a chance of voting
A [Jim Lindsay]: Obama might mention Ann Nixon Cooper in his Inaugural Address. She won't be going to the Inauguration though.
Q [Hervet]: will Obama ratify a new protocol about environments like in KYOTO?
A [Jim Lindsay]: No. The Kyoto Protocol is dead in the United States. The Senate will not approve the treaty. You can expect the Obama administration to do much more than the Bush Administration to address climate change issues.
Q [ircabidjan]: How can Obama interfere in actual decision of the white house because even elected he is not yet the president?
A [John Fortier]: Because of our transition period, there is a delicate relationship between the incoming and outgoing president. President-elect Obama has repeated the statement that there is only one president at a time, which has meant that he has been very cautious on making pronouncements on foreign policy. On the other hand, Obama has been quite active in working on domestic priorities, especially the stimulus package designed to help our economy. He is negotiating with leaders in Congress over the details. He is also prominent in making his selections for personnel in his administration.
Q [axi_bis]: what will be Obama's priorities concerning foreign affairs?
A [Jim Lindsay]: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Al Qaeda, Iran, and the Middle East Peace Process top the list. Other issues that will get priority attention include climate change, Russia, and oh yes, the stability of the international trade and financial system. In short, Obama's foreign policy inbox is full.
Q [jane]: is China an important part on the list?
A [Jim Lindsay]: Do you mean list of priorities? If so, yes. China is obviously a critical player in international trade and financial issues. But overall U.S.-China relations are OK. Hopefully things will stay that way.
Q [ircabidjan]: can democrates and republicans governed together?
A [John Fortier]: Good question. Many presidents come into office hoping to have good relations with the opposition party. President Bush made a pledge to restore civility in Washington. But our two political parties are polarized, and initial good will often gives way to traditional differences between the parties. I think President elect Obama has made some good faith efforts that have pleasantly surprised some Republicans; he kept bob gates at Defense, appointed another Republican to the cabinet, he has called republican leaders to hear their input. He has taken their concerns about the stimulus package seriously especially be including tax cuts in the stimulus package. All that said, you can see the traditional party differences asserting themselves in Congress. It will be an interesting early test of bipartisanship to see how many Republicans vote for the Obama stimulus package.
Q [ircabidjan5]: what does obama mean by "change yes we can!"? and what are the different changes expected?
A [Jim Lindsay]: It is a message of hope. It says we do not have to accept things as they are. We have the power in a democratic society to change our policies to reflect our true values and interests.
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Dr. Fortier and Dr. Lindsay. We are approaching the end of the 60-minute Q/A. You are more than welcome to stay online and continue answering questions as long as your schedules permit. However, we understand that you both have many obligations and the work day is just beginning here in the U.S. When you have answered your last question, please post a short comment letting everyone know that you are signing off. And thank you both so much for your time and expertise!
Comment [GANDHI]: GANDHI is signing off now. Thank you!
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Thank you for joining us today!
Q [jane]: Thank you for your answer. then what about China's role? any plans to cooperate with Chinese?
A [Jim Lindsay]: Certainly. And the United States and China already cooperate on issues. Finance and trade are obvious ones. Counterterrorism is another. The Obama administration wants good relations with China, but it also wants Beijing to be a responsible stakeholder in the international system that helps solve problems rather than free rides off the United States and the West.
Q [tracy]: could you please give us some informations about the new government's policy on Climate change? Such as whether there will be some progress on America's reaction on that issue?
A [John Fortier]: Obama has proposed a cap and trade system to limit emissions. With the stimulus package going first and likely work on a health care package, it is not clear when Obama will get to this priority. In the short term, he is likely to address smaller measures such as encouraging new green technologies. Many in the world are hoping that Obama will bring the U.S. into a Global agreement, maybe in Copenhagen 2009, but even with an Obama administration favorably disposed to this goal, this will be a difficult matter to get through Congress, and while movement in the direction of such an agreement may be possible, it is likely that American action to limit emissions will fall short of world expectations.
Q [Doukoure Cherifba Mohamed]: What are the policy priorities for the new administration?
A [Jim Lindsay]: Priority number one will be to weather the financial crisis and get the U.S. economy thriving again. Priority number two will be to reduce the commitment in Iraq and stabilize the situation in Afghanistan.
Comment [ircabidjan2]: we have been very happy take care bye
Commen0t [angoran]: thanks a lot for answering our questions good bye
Comment [jane]: Thank you. It s very late now in Shanghai, Glad to see you all! Bye!
Webchat Moderator [Melanie]: Thank you for joining us all the way from Shanghai!
Webchat Moderator [Tim]: Thanks for participating and staying up so late Jane!
Q [Nessren Gomaa]: cairo How can the new government participate in solving the middle east problem
A [Jim Lindsay]: To begin with you can expect lots of diplomatic activity. The hope is that by getting people talking the violence can be ratcheted down. But don't expect any quick and easy solutions. There aren't any.
Comment [jane]: It s a pleasure!
Comment [axi_bis]: thank you very much for answering our questions!
Webchat Moderator [Melanie]: If you would like, please tell us where you are joining us from today!
Comment [Agnes]: Tallinn Estonia
Comment [k bahalei]: Thank you for interesting questoins and answers, I were glad to be with you. BYE!)
Q [axi_bis]: could you elaborate on US-Russian relations and Obama's vision on them?
A [Jim Lindsay]: The Obama administration has a problem on Russia. It would like Russian cooperation on many issues. It is not clear how much cooperation it can expect from Moscow. Whether the relationship improves will depend more on what the Kremlin wants.
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Our speakers will take a couple of final questions and then they must move to their next appointments.
Q [Marzanna Gromotowicz]: The presidency has been transformed through the passing years. What do you think there will be Obama's first orders after becoming President? If it is true his first order will be closing the Guantanamo Bay prison what does it mean for the presidency? Marzanna Gromotowicz, Czstochowa, Poland
A [John Fortier]: Obama has committed to closing Guantanamo, but has now said it will take up to a year. In general, the set of policy problems around the war on terror vs. civil liberties will take much more time in the first year of the Obama administration than they might have thought. While generally a critic of Bush’s heavy reliance on presidential power, Obama will now have to balance security concerns with implementing new policies on detainees, military commissions, wiretapping etc., which will prove to be difficult issues.
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Once again we direct your attention to America.gov's special Transition Website at http://uspolitics.america.gov/uspolitics/elections/index.html
Q [angoran]: has pesident obama include the AFRICAN continent in his program of governance
A [Jim Lindsay]: Yes. Obama has said time and again that he wants to fight poverty in Africa, encourage prosperity, and end the genocide in Darfur. His challenge is that he has a lot of other problems to address as well, and the basic rule of political life in Washington is that if everything is a priority nothing is. Also, Obama's ambitious plans to double the size of America's foreign aid budget may end up being a victim of the ballooning U.S. federal budget deficit.
A [Jim Lindsay]: Hey everyone, thanks for logging in. My apologies for not being able to answer all your terrific questions. But I have to go catch a plane. Perhaps the State Department will have me back some time to do this again. Cheers!
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Please everyone join me in thanking Dr. Lindsay for his time with us today. Thank you!
Comment [Agnes]: Thank you,
Comment [Marzanna Gromotowicz]: Thank you!
Comment [jacqueline ruffle]: Thanks and bye! - Jacqueline [UK]
Comment [axi_bis]: Yes, thank you very much!
Q [Mahanina:Manjakahery [Tribune]]: I am journalist from Madagascar. I think, the Obama's team will visit Africa, Would it be possible to know already in which countries and how long that visit will take place? Like Madagascar, what are the sectors or domains that may attract the new administration?
A [John Fortier]: Thanks for all of the great questions. I have to go as well. It was a pleasure.
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Thank you Dr. Fortier, we are very happy you could join us today!
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: The Q/A portion of today's session is now concluded. We will keep the open forum going.
Comment [Denis Cenusa]: Thank you very much
Webchat Moderator [Mark]: Thanks Denis!
(end transcript)
