20 October 2008
Scholar Discusses U.S. Elections, Electoral Process with Afghanistan
Ask America webchat transcript, October 20
Allan J. Lichtman, a scholar of quantitative methods and American political history of the late 19th and 20th centuries at American University, answered questions on the U.S. elections and electoral process in an October 20 Ask America webchat with Afghanistan.
Following is the transcript:
(begin transcript)
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of International Information Programs
Ask America Webchat Transcript
Online Forum Afghanistan: History of U.S. Elections and Electoral Process
Guest: Allan J. Lichtman
Date: October 20, 2008
Time: 7:30 a.m. EDT (1600 Kabul)
Moderator: Welcome to today's discussion. We are accepting your questions now. Dr. Lichtman will be online at 11:30 GMT 16:00 Kabul.
Welcome everyone joining us across Afghanistan. We are glad you are with us today. Dr. Lichtman will try to answer as many of your questions as possible. We welcome all of our global participants today, however, priority will be given to questions coming from our guests in Afghanistan.
Moderator: Welcome everyone, please stay online with us. Dr. Lichtman is getting signed in to the discussion page from his home near Washington, D.C.
Allan Lichtman: Hi I'm Dr. Lichtman. I am delighted to participate and welcome all of your questions.
Moderator: Dr. Lichtman is now reviewing your questions. Thank you for your patience.
Question [Dr. Noor sha/ LC Jalalabad, Afghanistan]: Why there is no black american president in usa till now?
Answer [Allan Lichtman]: African Americans have only in the last forty-five years received full voting and political opportunities in the United States. It has taken some time for an African American to reach the prominence of Barack Obama.
Q [Amrullah]: What will be the message of new president of U.S for Afghanistan and region? – From LC Jalalabad, Afghanistan
A [Allan Lichtman]: The next president will send the message that the U.S. will do whatever is possible to try to bring peace and stability to the region. Both Obama and McCain have pledged to devote more resources to Afghanistan as priorities are shifted from Iraq.
Moderator: Dr. Lichtman continues to review your questions. We welcome our participants across Afghanistan.
Q [siamuden/lc/jalalabad]: hi and how are every one?
Moderator: Hello siamuden, welcome to our discussion.
Q [Aussie08]: hello.
Moderator: Hello Aussie08, welcome!
Q [Aussie08]: will a transcript of the chat be published or otherwise available for download?
Moderator: Yes, a transcript will be posted to America.gov's webchat site at: http://www.america.gov/multimedia/askamerica.html, usually within one business day.
You may also visit our online community at http://co-nx.state.gov.
Q [nguyen]: is there any opportunity of scholarship for foreign students?
Moderator: Hello nguyen, answers to questions about study in the U.S. can be found at the U.S. State Department's EducationUSA homepage.
Q [huzi]: hello
Moderator: Hello huzi, welcome to the discussion.
Q [Dr. Noor sha/ LC Jalalabad, Afghanistan]: Does it conform that there was recently racism?
A [Allan Lichtman]: Of course, some racist sentiments will inevitably emerge with the nomination of the first African American presidential candidate in the history of the United States. Most racist sentiment, however, has come from isolated individuals at Republican rallies and not from the McCain campaign or the Republican Party itself. Race has not really been a direct issue in the campaign, only an indirect one.
Q [Muhibullah, Afghanistan, Jalalabad, LC]: Hello dear professor this is Muhibullah form Afghanistan.
I cordially ask about U.S.'s election, what will have for our country, will new president send more troops to this country, will he have new strategy for this country, will he have economical plan for this country?
A [Allan Lichtman]: It is likely that the new president will send more troops to Afghanistan. Obama has said that he will bring the troops back from Iraq in about 16 months and reallocate troops to Afghanistan. McCain has not said when he will withdraw the troops from Iraq, but has also said he wants more troops in Afghanistan. I am certain that the new president will review and likely change current economic development plans for the region. However, the current economic crisis will be a factor in the development of new programs.
Q [amir 2]: hi, what are the most important points for American voters regarding a candidate usually?
A [Allan Lichtman]: The most important points for the American voter are that the candidate has a vision for improving the nation and the world and the practical skills needed to carry out that vision. Currently, given the economic crisis, the economy and the candidates’ economic plans regarding taxes, spending, and economic regulation are the most important issues for the voters. The voters are also unhappy with the current administration in Washington and are looking for a candidate who will bring change to the country.
Q [Arif]: Hi this is Arif Mujaddedi from US Embassy Kabul.
Moderator: Hello Arif, welcome!
Thanks everyone for your questions, we have the glitch fixed now and Dr. Lichtman will continue answering your many questions.
If you are just joining us, Dr. Allan Lichtman is today's guest. We are discussing the 08 election.
Q [Aussie08]: Dr. Lichtman, to what extent do you believe the media is responsible for perpetuating sentiments that race is a pertinent issue in this election?
A [Allan Lichtman]: I don’t think the media is responsible for propagating the idea that race is a relevant issue in this election. The media has not stoked the racial issue beyond what might be expected. There will always be some voters who are reluctant to vote for an African American. But overt racism has not been very apparent in this election, except from a relatively few extremists. Overall, I do not believe that race will decide the election, although it may have the effect of slightly reducing the vote for Obama.
Q [siamuden/lc/jalalabad]: hello, I am siamuden from Afghanistan.
Moderator: Welcome Siamuden we are glad you are with us today.
Q [siamuden/lc/jalalabad] : In Afghanistan most people support Obama, what about ur country?
A [Allan Lichtman]: Right now Obama is leading John McCain in the polls and has been leading for some time. His lead nationally is about 5 to 6 percentage points. He is also leading in many of key states needed to win the election. Therefore, if present trends hold, Obama will be elected president of the U.S. However, the election is still two weeks away and the McCain campaign will do everything possible to change the results by calling into question the character and leadership of Obama.
Q [Farhad Rezaei]: Hello All, Farhad From Kabul
Moderator: Welcome Farhad!
A transcript of today's discussion will be posted to America.gov's webchat site at: http://www.america.gov/multimedia/askamerica.html usually within one business day. You may also join our online community at http://co-nx.state.gov.
Q [ezatullah]: hello
Moderator: Hello!
Q [Mohammad]: hi i am Mohammad from LC Bamyan. do u think election process in America is more democratic than the other countries?
A [Allan Lichtman]: The election process in America is neither more nor less Democratic than in many other democracies that have been functioning for some time. Although I do think that election of the president by the Electoral College rather than the popular vote slightly diminishes American democracy. Obviously the U.S. system is much more democratic than the political system in the world’s two other greatest powers: Russia and China. It is important to keep working on a system to maintain a functioning democracy.
Moderator: Thank you all for your many questions, Dr. Lichtman is working as quickly as possible to answer as many as possible.
Q [Amani]: hi i am Amani from LC Bamyan: concerning the world economic crisis as world economy is under the influence of American economy, so which one of candidates has the best economic plan for solving this problem according to u point of view?
A [Allan Lichtman]: From my perspective Obama has the better plan, and according to the polls, most Americans seem to share this perspective. Obama would raise taxes on those making $250,000 a year and reduce taxes on the middle class, whose spending and working is the key to the economy. He would expand regulation on business and the financial system to prevent the kind of practices that led to the current crisis. He would invest in new technologies for renewable energy, in education, and in rebuilding the American infrastructure. Neither candidate, however, has presented a good plan for cutting the enormous American budget deficit which could approach $1 trillion over the next year. Of course, others will have different perspectives on this very difficult economic issue.
Moderator: We see your questions coming in, thank you. If we do not get to your individual question in today's online forum, we will be sure to keep them on hand for future discussions.
Q [abdulahdi.kakar/LC Jalalabad]: my question is about it, that why american people worry about there election?
A [Allan Lichtman]: The American people see this as a critical election because they are unhappy with how the current administration is governing the nation. More than 90 percent of the American people believe that the country is on the wrong track and President George W. Bush is extremely unpopular. People are yearning for a new direction in Washington. They also see this election as important because the nation has so many critical problems that need a solution. These include the financial crisis, the continued wars, the energy crisis and global warming, and the need to improve American health care and education.
Moderator: We invite you to visit America.gov's Elections08 homepage where you will find information on the candidates, the issues, and the process of electing the president.
Q [wilkinsondj]: Why does the American elections still use the Electoral College vote rather than the popular vote?
A [Allan Lichtman]: Most Americans would actually prefer election of the president by popular vote according to survey results. However, this would require amending the Constitution, which is a very difficult process. An amendment requires a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress and ratification by three-quarters of the states. The less populous states like Delaware and Alaska would never agree to such an amendment because they benefit from having three electoral votes that could turn the election as in the very close 2000 election.
Q [ezatullah]: Ezatullah LC Jalalabad
Moderator: Hello again Ezatullah, Dr, Lichtman continues to review the many questions coming in.
On Election Day November 4, we will be live on this site for a "rolling" discussion featuring a number of elections experts and pundits. Our discussion will begin at 17:00 GMT on November 4 and continue throughout the night and into November 5. Join us!
Q [Mustafa Maulawizada]: Good afternoon to all, this is Mustafa From Kabul: Will the the two Factors 1. Being Black American 2. Having a muslim background (in fact having a Muslim family) could be reasons for Senator Obama to Lose the Polls?
A [Allan Lichtman]: First, Obama is not a Muslim, but is a Christian. Some Americans, however, do believe that Obama is a Muslim. According to the American Constitution, there is no religious test for holding office, so Obama’s religion should not matter. Still, there are some Americans who negatively view Islam and this may influence into their voting. I doubt, however, that such voters would have supported Obama under any circumstances. There are also some voters who will be reluctant to vote for a black candidate. However, I do not believe that this vote will prevent Obama from winning the election.
Q [reza. LCM]: Hello Dr., i am reza huseini form Lincoln Center Mazar, Afghanistan and am so happy that I can write for you.
Moderator: Hello Reza Huseini, we are very pleased you have joined today's discussion.
There are now more than 60 questions in the queue, we hope you will understand if Dr. Lichtman is unable to answer each one of them. He is trying to select questions that many of you have asked, so please look for questions similar to yours. Thank you!
Q [amir]: concerning the new changes in the balance of international army and political force, after [Russian] invade on Gurjistan [Georgia] and attack policy in the Russian foreign policy, which candidate has the best plan on this issue according to ur point of view especially victory for America on the case of Qafqaz [Caucasus] regarding Russian interest to this issue too?
A [Allan Lichtman]: Neither candidate wants relations between the U.S. and Russia to deteriorate into another Cold War. Both candidates would encourage such former Soviet Republics such as Georgia and Ukraine to seek entrance into NATO as a means of preventing any Russian aggression. Both candidates would try to persuade Russia to respect democracy and human rights. McCain, however, would probably take a more aggressive position. For example, he has suggested expelling Russia from the G-8, something that Obama has not endorsed. Obama probably would more willing than McCain to rely on diplomacy and negotiations. Of course, right now the situation in Russia is made more complex by Russia’s economic problems, which are tied to the declining price of oil.
Q [abbas]: hello my name is abbas from LCM and i am happy that i can write to you
Moderator: Welcome!
Q [Noor]: Hello Dr. its Noor ramazan from Lincoln Center Mazar, Afghanistan. Happy having the chance to know something from DR.
Moderator: And welcome to you Noor Ramazan, we're pleased you could join us.
If everyone doesn't mind, we're going to take one question from an international participant joining us from Cairo, Egypt. It is an interesting question about the nature of democracy.
Q [ALI EID 2]: Democracy is not just a way of selecting leaders it is a mode of life that grows out by a thousand individual initiatives; how adapting to the culture of democracy? --Cairo IRC al
A [Allan Lichtman]: You are right democracy is more than just election and candidates. It is important for a democratic nation to adopt a culture of democracy as well. Such a culture has many components. Here are just a few examples. Freedom of the press, speech and assembly are essential to avoid manipulated elections and unaccountable governments. Grass-roots involvement by ordinary voters in political parties and voluntary associations like environmental or civil rights groups are essential to keep rule by the people functioning and to counter the power of big-money lobbyists. An honest legal and judicial system is needed as a watchdog over political practices. Union organizations and business trade groups are essential for presenting balanced views on the economy.
Moderator: We are almost at the end of our allotted hour, Dr. Lichtman will take two more questions.
Q [LINCOLN CENTER Mazar]: hi. I am mohammad from Lincoln Center Mazar.
Moderator: Hello Mohammad and welcome to the discussion.
Q [amir 2]: as we heard that Mr. [Powell] the ex-American secretary of state has backed Senator Obama, do u think this will be positive point for Obama to win the election?
A [Allan Lichtman]: Colin Powell’s endorsement will help Obama win the election for several reasons.
First, Powell is a Republican who is highly respected by most Americans.
Second, Powell’s endorsement helps counter the argument that Obama lacks the experience in foreign and military policy to become president.
Third, Powell appeals to many war veterans who might have been inclined to support McCain.
Fourth, Powell appeals to three important constituencies that both candidates are trying to win over: moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats, and independent voters.
Fifth, the timing of the endorsement helps Obama as it comes just slightly more than two weeks before the election.
Q [sakhi]: hello, I am sakhi keyanoosh.
Moderator: Hello Sakhi! We're happy to have you online.
Q [reza. LCM]: Do the American youths interest to vote?
A [Allan Lichtman]: This will be my last answer. Thank you for your excellent and thoughtful questions. I hope to be able to chat with you again.
Voting by young people usually lags behind that of older Americans. Young people, however, do seem to be inspired by this year’s election. They believe that the election is critical to their future. Many young people have also been inspired by Barack Obama. The polls show that he has a big lead among young voters. If young people turn out in large numbers this year they could make the difference in election Obama.
Moderator: To everyone who joined us across Afghanistan, thank you for participating in this first Online Forum Afghanistan, we hope you found the discussion interesting. There were many questions, well over 70, so we hope you will understand if Dr. Lichtman was unable to answer your questions directly. More Online Forums are coming soon, please join us again.
If there are topics you would like to discuss in the Online Forum, please let us know.
The webchat is now closed. A full transcript of today's webchat will be published (usually within one business day) to our Ask America homepage.
We invite you to visit America.gov's Elections08 homepage where you will find information on the candidates, the issues, and the process of electing the president.
(Speakers are chosen for their expertise and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Department of State.)
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