17 September 2007
Early Primaries and Caucuses Shape Presidential Hopefuls’ Odds
Campaign season unsettled in 2008 U.S. election
Washington -- State primary elections and caucuses held early in the race to determine the Republican and Democratic candidates for president of the United States give an indication of how candidates will do throughout the campaign season.
Caucuses gauge support for presidential candidates through local meetings of party members, while primary elections gauge support through statewide direct voting. The events determine which candidates will receive a state’s votes for the Republican and Democratic nominations at the political parties' national conventions held later in the year.
Historically, the Iowa caucus in the Midwest and the New Hampshire primary in New England, held in January of each four-year presidential election cycle, have been the first two events in the race for each party's nomination.
The 2008 schedule is unsettled, however, because several states -- including Florida and Michigan -- have announced plans to break party rules by holding their events earlier in the year, hoping to claim greater influence in the nomination process.
Throughout the nation, voters pay attention to the campaigns and results in Iowa and New Hampshire to assess candidates’ behavior, reaction under pressure, statesman qualities and physical stamina. Strong showings in the early states can give candidates momentum, carrying them on to additional victories. Candidates with poor showings usually drop out of the race.
Because Iowa and New Hampshire are small states, candidates campaign there on a personal level, meeting and greeting individual voters, and media attention is focused on those states. Advocates for keeping the two states at the head of the race say this personal contact is a better test of candidate skills than later events in larger states, where candidates depend on less personal strategies such as advertising, speeches and rallies.
Pre-event media coverage in Iowa and New Hampshire also includes media expectations for individual candidates, and that has become almost as important as the actual results. If a candidate meets or exceeds the media’s expectations, even a second- or third-place finish can bring that candidate increased publicity and campaign donations.
COMPETING PRIORITIES
For 2008, the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling recommended adding several caucuses ahead of the New Hampshire primary. The Democratic National Committee approved the recommendations and decreed that Nevada in the West, and South Carolina in the South, would be the next stops on the campaign trail, helping spread out the early voting to all parts of the nation.
The Democrats said that if any other state defies the official schedule and votes before February 5, 2008, it will lose its votes at the party's national convention. The Republican National Committee is considering similar action. Iowa and New Hampshire then announced they reserve the right to reschedule their contests, possibly even as early as December 2007 if other states challenge their first-in-the-nation status.
The New Hampshire State Legislature passed a law in 1977 stating that its primary must be the first in the nation, seven days before any other “similar contest.” As a result of other states’ actions, beginning in the 1990s, New Hampshire started to move its date earlier and earlier each elections cycle.
Some object to the disproportionate influence Iowa and New Hampshire have in the nomination process because they are sparsely populated and less racially diverse than the country as a whole. The new schedule should address some of those concerns. Nevada, for example, has more Hispanic-American citizens than the national average, and South Carolina has a large African-American population.
According to the National Association of Secretaries of State, the campaign calendar begins with the Iowa caucuses on January 14, 2008, and ends with the Montana and South Dakota primaries on June 3, 2008. But with 21 states considering or scheduling their events on February 5 and others threatening to move up their events, the association says all dates are subject to change.
HISTORY OF PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY SYSTEM
Presidential primaries originated in the United States at the turn of the 20th century as an outgrowth of the Progressive Movement. Reformers fighting corruption at that time objected to links between political bosses and big business. Primaries became part of their reform effort to return the government to the people.
Florida enacted the first presidential primary law in 1901, giving party officials the option of holding an election to choose national convention delegates, but there was no provision for placing the names of presidential candidates on the ballot. Oregon became the first state to hold a preferential primary vote for president in 1910, and by 1912, a dozen states had enacted presidential primary laws.
Over the years, that number increased, with 17 states holding primaries in 1968 and 30 in 1976. By 2000, and again this cycle, the number will be 41 states, with the rest having caucuses.
For more information, see U.S. Elections.
