01 November 2006
Thomas Mann of Brookings Institution on 2006 Midterm Elections
USINFO Webchat transcript, November 1
Thomas E. Mann, the W. Averell Harriman Chair and Senior Fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution, answered questions on the issues and party politics that are shaping election season in the United States.
Following is the transcript:
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of International Information Programs
USINFO Webchat Transcript
Discussion of the upcoming 2006 Congressional Midterm Elections
Guest: Thomas Mann
Date: November 1, 2006
Time: 9:00 a.m. EST (1400 GMT)
THOMAS MANN - On November 7, 2006, Americans will elect representatives at the local, state, and federal level. The much-discussed mid-term congressional elections could bring about the change of the majority party in either or both chambers of Congress. They come at a pivotal point for U.S. policy at home and abroad. Dr. Thomas Mann, a distinguished government scholar, will discuss issues and party politics that are shaping this political season.
QUESTION [Bruno Hoepers]: Mr. Thomas, do you believe that GOP's money advantage can be a crucial factor to decide who will keep (or maintain) the majority in Congress, or the results will be decided by other factors?
ANSWER [Thomas Mann]: No. The Democrats have sufficient funds to expand the playing field and take advantage of the strong national wave that is gathering.
WEBCHAT MODERATOR: Welcome to today's webchat on the upcoming elections in the United States. We are waiting for our guest to log in, please do keep sending in your questions.
Q [IRC Cairo]: DR. THOMAS Mann. I HAVE THE HONOR TO CHAT WITH YOU; I THINK THAT US FOREIGN POLICY WILL [have an] EFFECT ON THE ELECTION PROCESS?
DO YOU AGREE WITH ME? YES OR NO AND WHY?
ALI EID; MA IN DEVLOPMENT STUDIES AND INTERSTED IN GLOBALIZATION AND HUMAN SECURITY
A: This election is being driven primarily by a very unpopular war in Iraq and secondarily by public perceptions of incompetence in the Bush administration and corruption in the Republican Congress.
Q [Daniesza]: This may sound radical, I hope not to offend, please bear with me in my struggle to understand the domestic US political climate from so far away.
Is there a general consensus among politicians or government officials to view the growing, so-called Truth Movement as a threat to the nation, and therefore justify the authoritarian legislation being passed (thru the halls of democracy) of this administration?
Do they see a need for a critical vigilance over these elections, given the overwhelming evidence of previous "foul play" (to put it mildly), and keep an eye on events, to pay special attention to ballot casting procedures and avoid what many consider fraudulent elections this mid-term?
In sum, is there hope for the vestiges of democracy?
A: There clearly concerns in America about the appropriate balance between security and liberty. Some feel we have swung too far to the former at the expense of the latter. This feeling is exacerbated by President Bush's unprecedented assertion of presidential authority. I suspect a Democratic Congress will push back a bit on this critical matter during the last two years of the Bush Administration.
Concerns about the administration of our elections have been widespread since November 2000. Our highly decentralized system is prone to error and fraud. The system is vulnerable this year in particular because of new voting equipment and new laws regarding voter identification. Both parties have legends of staff and lawyers monitoring polling places and preparing to file lawsuits if necessary. Let up pray that the margin of victory exceeds the margin of litigation.
Q [Haroon]: What results are expected?
A: It is very likely that the Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives. They need 15 additional seats but could easily pickup double or more that number. In the Senate, Democrats needs a gain of 6 seats. Of the 33 Senate seats up this year, only 8 or 9 are being seriously contested, all but one now held by a Republican. I think Democrats will gain 5, 6, or 7 seats. Unlike most observers, I give a slight advantage to the Democrats, based on the anticipated wave.
Q [Umeda]: Hello mister Thomas Mann.
What are chances of Hillary Clinton at the elections?
Umeda Davlatova and students from Tajikistan
A: Hillary Clinton will win an overwhelming majority in her reelection campaign for her seat representing New York in the U.S. Senate, probably winning 60 to 65 percent of the vote. That will place her in a good position if she decides, as now seems likely, to run for president in 2008.
Q [IRC Cairo]: Do you think the new Congress will focus on the Middle East issues?
A: Iraq will be a central concern of the new Congress. I expect highly publicized hearings on the best way forward there. But I also expect pressure from Congress for the Administration to take a more active role in peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.
Q [Bruno Hoepers]: Some political analysis point out to changes in the "political momentum" facing both parties, especially Republicans. Other analysts focus on "structural advantages" of incumbents.
Dr. Mann, which of these approaches is more accurate to analyze this midterm election?
A: Most incumbent members of Congress face no serious opposition and will be easily reelected. However, there are about 75 seats in the House (all but 5 now held by Republicans) and 8 or 9 seats in the Senate (all but one now held by a Republican) which are at risk. The election is shaping up as a strong negative referendum on President Bush and the Republican party. A national wave that swings 6 or 7 percent of the vote from the Republicans to the Democrats should be sufficient to produce a comfortable Democratic majority in the House and possibly the narrowest of Democratic majorities in the Senate.
Q [pjlane]: Dr. Mann, if the Democrats do gain control of one or both Houses of Congress, how much and in what ways will that affect the Bush administration's ability to govern? Patric Lane, Radio NZ
A: The President has had a very difficult time with this Congress, which is controlled by Republicans. His declining popularity and public unhappiness with the war in Iraq has led to Republican fissures and great difficult passing his program. A Democratic Congress would multiply those problems. Bush could reach some level of success only if he is willing to change his approach to governance and modify his positions on a range of policies. That doesn't seem likely but one never knows. Immigration is an issue on which congressional Democrats are closer to the President than are Republicans. But the President's heated rhetoric against the Democrats in the last weeks of the campaign will not help his ability to govern with them in the next two years.
Q [Ruth Costas]: Trade promotion authority will expire in July 2007, unless it's extended by Congress. With a Democrat majority in both houses (and considering democrats tend to be more protectionists), is this extention less likely to be approved?
A: Extention of TPA had little chance in the current Congress. It has no chance in the next one. It will take time and exceptional presidential leadership to rebuild domestic political support necessary to reestablish this authority. This will be a central challenge facing the next president.
Q [Bruno Hoepers]: Dr. Mann, do you think that democrats in majority will be able to block up the White House plans to approve a permanent tax cut?
A: Yes. Some of the tax cuts (marriage penalty, child tax credits) might be made permanent. But it is safe to say that the estate tax will not be eliminated nor will the tax rate cuts be made permanent. The biggest challenge the Congress will face is the alternative minimum tax (AMT), which is beginning to impose a major tax increase on middle class families. The sobering reality is that we need more tax revenues to deal with new spending demands (military and security) and to cope with the retirement of the baby boomers. This should be done in the context of overall tax reform but political conditions will make that very difficult over the next several years.
Q [pjlane]: Given the current wide expectations that the Democrats will do well next Tuesday, if the DON'T, what are the implications for the party heading into the 08 general election?
A: Given the angry public and narrow majorities in Congress, a failure by the Democrats to gain a majority in at least the House would raise troubling questions about the capacity of the American electoral system for democratic accountability. It would also be deeply dispiriting to congressional Democrats and probably lead to a raft of retirements. But it would not necessarily say much about the 2008 presidential election. There is no relationship between midterm gains and losses and the subsequent presidential election. That will depend on the broad political environment shaped by Iraq and the economy and the candidates nominated by each party.
Q [IRC Cairo - Hossam Hussein]: How do you view the crisis of Katrina and what should be done?
A: The Administration's initial response to Katrina has had a lasting impact on the public's view of its competence. New Orleans and its surrounding areas continue to struggle toward recovery. The problems left in Katrina's wake are staggering.
Q [Darryl] Dr. Mann,
Just joining the chat, so if this question has already been asked, please forgive me. How many changes do you foresee in Governor's mansions?
A: National wave elections generally leave an impact on state and local as well as congressional elections. Democrats now control 22 governorships, Republicans 28. Democrats are likely to pick up 4 to 8 additional governor's mansions as well as 200 to 400 additional state legislative seats and control of 10 or more state legislative chambers. This is almost a reversal of the 1994 election results and will put them in good shape entering the next round of legislative redistricting.
Thomas Mann - Thanks for your questions. I've enjoyed our web chat.
WEBCHAT MODERATOR: We would like to thank Dr. Mann for taking the time to Webchat with us today. The Webchat is now closed.
A transcript of today's chat will be available on our USINFO Webchat Station within one business day.
(Although guests are chosen for their expertise, the views expressed by the guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of State.)
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