12 August 2005

Child Malnutrition in Africa Could Be Halved by 2015, Report Says

Goal can be met with policy reform and investment, according to study

By Aviva Altmann
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- Though child malnutrition in Africa has increased over the past 30 years, a new report shows that with intensive policy reform and investment, malnutrition in African children could be halved by 2015.

On August 11, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) released a report titled Looking Ahead: Long-Term Prospects for Africa’s Agricultural Development and Food Security to media organizations in the United States, England and Africa.

“This is not another doom and gloom report," said Rajul Pandya-Lorch, head of IFPRI's 2020 Vision Initiative for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment.  “[It] finds that the number of malnourished in Africa, with enough investment, can drop.”

The report shows that, if current trends of policy and investment continue (what IFPRI calls the “business-as-usual” model), the number of hungry children in Africa will increase by 3.3 million by 2025.

If there is a decline in domestic and international investments, IFPRI expects what they call a “pessimistic scenario,” in which there would be up to 55.1 million malnourished children in sub-Saharan Africa alone in 2025, an increase of 22.4 million since 1997.

But the report formulates what IFPRI calls the “vision scenario,” which takes into account the interventions necessary to meet the Millennium Development Goal target of cutting the number of people suffering from hunger in half by 2015.  If provisions from the vision scenario are followed correctly, the report projects, the number of malnourished children would indeed be cut in half, to 15.1 million, by 2015, and cut to 9.4 million by 2025.

Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI division director of environment and production technology and the lead author of the report, explained the changes that need to be made in order to attain the vision scenario.  “Our findings reveal that an additional US $4.7 billion per year in investments above ‘business-as-usual’ investment levels, along with appropriate policy changes, would enable Africa to confront child malnutrition as effectively as the rest of the developing world,” Rosegrant said.

The report suggests many ways to improve food security.  In order to contribute to both food security and the environment, IFPRI suggests investment in irrigation -- an increase of 141 percent over current levels to US $48.7 billion.  Investment in access to clean water would need to increase by 55 percent from current levels to US $49.1 billion.

The demand for water in Africa is expected to increase greatly -- consumption is expected to grow by 67 percent in the next 20 years.  The report shows that simply improving rain collection would diminish the economic factors that harm agriculture.  “More effective rainfall use in rain-fed areas of Africa can result in food production increases [and] price decreases, and when employed alongside irrigation practices, it can also keep food prices from escalating,” according to an IFPRI summary of the report.

The report projects that in sub-Saharan countries alone, more effective rainfall use can cut Africa's cereal import burden by half, reducing imports from 17.4 million metric tons per year to 8.7 million metric tons per year in 2021-25.

Although not directly associated with agriculture, improvements in rural infrastructure and education, especially among women, are also predicted to increase food security.  The report calls for a 56 percent increase in funding for infrastructure, to US $95.4 billion total, and a 117 percent increase in funding for education, to a total of US $82.3 billion.

Additional improvements to policy, marketing and communications are also seen as factors that could decrease malnutrition in Africa – they would reduce obstacles to agricultural productivity.

The report provides guidance for African policy-makers and the international donor community, as it is designed to help shape the decisions at the Millennium+5 Summit in New York City.  The summit, scheduled for September, will assess progress on the Millennium Development Goals.

“When the United Nations’ member countries meet on September 14, they have the opportunity to make good on the promises made five years ago.  If they are serious [about fulfilling these promises], they need to accelerate the pace of change in Africa,” Rosegrant said.

For additional information, see U.S. Aid to Africa, Millennium Challenge Account and Global Development and Foreign Aid.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)