17 September 2008

Presidential Contest Remains Close in Battleground States

American voters still have concerns about both presidential candidates

John McCain speaks to employees at a plant in Colorado. The Hispanic vote could be decisive in Colorado.

By Michelle Austein
Staff Correspondent

Washington — As Election Day nears, the U.S. presidential race remains extremely close, particularly in battleground states, a Republican and a Democratic pollster agreed.

Polls suggest that many states favor Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama so strongly that there is little doubt which candidates will win those states’ Electoral College votes. This means the outcome of the presidential race will depend on who wins the battleground states, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse and Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg reminded journalists at the State Department’s Foreign Press Center September 16.

“This is not a national election, this is a state-by-state election,” Newhouse, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies said.

Many states have a history of their voters consistently favoring one party, but voters in battleground states, also called swing states, are divided so evenly in their political allegiances that statewide support often switches from one party to another. The candidates will focus most of their remaining campaign days on these states.

“It’s basically … a dead even race, which is why we find this all too exciting,” Greenberg, chief executive officer of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, said.

Most recent national polls indicate that Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are nearly tied, and the findings are similar when examining swing states. Greenberg cited a September 8-10 Democracy Corps survey that indicates McCain is favored by one percentage point in battleground states.

Political experts and pollsters have differing opinions over which states should be considered battlegrounds. Greenberg and Democracy Corps call the following states battlegrounds: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Demographic shifts mean there are new battlegrounds in 2008. In the 2006 midterm elections, groups that once heavily favored Republicans, such as upscale suburban voters and white rural voters, shifted to support Democrats. If these Democratic gains hold, some traditional Republican states could vote Democratic, Greenberg said.

Additionally, the Hispanic population — 40 percent of which supported President Bush in 2004 — now leans heavily Democratic. This shift “changed the map,” Greenberg said, making western states like Colorado and Nevada swing states for the first time in decades. (See “Obama, McCain Compete in Wooing Hispanic Voters.”)

Some populations that favored Democrats in the 2004 presidential election are not strong supporters of Obama. And, in battleground states, Obama is not earning the support of as many older white Americans as Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry did in 2004, according to Greenberg’s research. Nor is Obama performing as well as Kerry did with blue collar male voters.

The Democracy Corps survey found that voters in battleground states believe Obama is better prepared to handle the economy; these voters also believe McCain is better able to handle national security issues.

Barack Obama visits a plant in Pennsylvania, a swing state with a sizable population of blue-collar workers.

ECONOMY STILL DOMINANT CAMPAIGN ISSUE

The candidates are courting independent voters, who make up about 25 percent to 30 percent of battleground states’ voters, Newhouse said. “Their issues are no different than anyone else’s issues … it’s the pocketbook issues, it’s the economy.”

“The economy drives these [poll] numbers,” Newhouse said.

Battleground voters are also seeking change, a common theme in the 2008 election. This is indicated by the low approval rating of President Bush and the high number of Americans who feel the country is on the wrong track — numbers that have been sustained throughout the presidential campaign, Newhouse said.

“The election will be decided on who is the right kind of change,” Greenberg said.

Battleground voters still have concerns about each candidate, the pollsters said. In the Democracy Corps survey, half of respondents said Obama is too inexperienced. Half the respondents also said they are concerned McCain will continue the same policies as President Bush.

The pollsters believe the presidential candidates’ debates will be an important opportunity for the candidates to ease voters’ concerns. The first of three presidential debates is September 26.

“I think there is a huge amount at stake in these debates and I think people will be watching very carefully and making decisions,” Newhouse said, adding that voters are asking themselves, “Do I feel safe, do I feel secure with Obama? Is he experienced enough?” They are also asking themselves, “Do I feel … confident that the policies and programs of John McCain won’t be similar to George Bush’s?”

“You’re going to find voters looking for answers to those questions in those debates,” he said.

With the race so close, it is difficult to predict who will win the presidency, the pollsters said.

“I don’t think we know what’s going to happen,” in the remaining weeks of the campaign, Newhouse said. “This is not a campaign that has gone on a straight and narrow path. It’s a campaign that has zigzagged and the issues have changed dramatically depending on external events.”

Newhouse said the presidency is “still up for grabs.”

A transcript of the briefing is available on the State Department’s Web site.