30 October 2008
Polls Indicate New Mexico Voters Slightly Favor Obama
Competitive congressional race features harsh rhetoric
Washington — Using recent political history as a guide, Democrats and Republicans expected New Mexico to be one of the most contentious battlegrounds in 2008.
The state had the narrowest vote margin between the two presidential candidates in 2000 and 2004. Preparing for a repeat of that scenario, the presidential campaigns set up large operations in the state, and candidates and campaign surrogates have made numerous visits.
Recent polls indicate the 2008 election might not be close. Most news outlets now say New Mexico “leans Democrat,” indicating presidential candidate Barack Obama likely will win the state by a safe margin.
But Republican John McCain is not giving up, nor is Obama taking his support for granted. In what the Albuquerque Journal newspaper called “one of the busiest-ever days of presidential politicking in New Mexico,” both candidates visited the state October 25.
McCain spoke to an estimated 1,000 supporters at a fairground in Albuquerque, the largest city in the state and home to most of the New Mexico 1st Congressional District’s population. Local news media reported the turnout likely disappointed some Republicans because 3,000 tickets for the event were available. Later in the day, McCain headed about 515 kilometers (320 miles) south for a rally at a historic plaza in Mesilla.
In both his speeches, McCain said he understands the unique border security and energy issues a southwestern state faces. “I'm a fellow Westerner, I understand the issues, I understand the challenges the great Western states face," said McCain, a senator from neighboring Arizona. "We know what our great Southwest is, we welcome it and I'm proud to be a senator from the West."
That evening, 35,000 people waited up to three hours in line for a chance to see Obama speak on a field at the University of New Mexico. Another estimated 10,000 watched from outside the gates. Local political observers say Obama’s rally was the largest political event the state has held in their memory.
Speaking to Hispanics, who make up about 30 percent of the state’s voters, Obama said: “Latino community, you hold this election in your hands. You can be the swing vote all across the country.”
Meanwhile, New York Senator Hillary Clinton campaigned for her former rival in the southern part of the state.
CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES GO NEGATIVE
The Democratic Party is hoping for enough Senate victories to increase their coalition of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents from 51 to 60.
Holding 60 seats is important because 60 votes are needed to end a filibuster — a parliamentary procedure that allows senators to continue a debate indefinitely and block or delay a vote on a measure or nomination. (See “Democrats Hoping for Major Senate Gains.”)
Democrats are counting on their New Mexico Senate candidate, Tom Udall, who currently serves in the U.S. House of Representatives, to get them one seat closer to 60. Polls indicate Udall leads his opponent, Steve Pearce, by a considerable margin.
But the congressional race between the New Mexico 1st candidates, Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White, remains competitive. The candidates have both broadcast hard-hitting negative ads: In one, White accuses Heinrich of associations with an “extremist,” while in another Heinrich claims White used government funds to buy a personal vehicle.
The candidates were asked about their negativity in a recent debate. Heinrich, who has accused the White campaign of running false ads, said he thinks “you should be able to show proof that your claims are factual” before being allowed to run an advertisement.
The Democratic candidate said he would stop running negative ads in the final days of the campaign. White used an analogy to say Heinrich’s decision to stop negative ads does not change his overall campaign message: “If you walk in and rob a bank and an hour later you take the money back, you’re still a bank robber,” he said.
Both candidates face serious challenges. Heinrich, a former Albuquerque City Council president, is trying to become the first Democrat to win the district’s congressional seat since it was created in 1969. White, the Bernalillo County sheriff, might have history on his side, but he is fighting the battle without financial support from the Republican National Committee. The party decided to pull its advertising for White so those funds could be used to help some of its currently serving representatives as they face competitive re-election battles in other parts of the country.
The candidates’ recent campaigning might be too late for some voters. Political analysts predict about half of New Mexicans will cast early votes. Early reports indicate more registered Democrats than Republicans have voted.
This article is part of America.gov’s continuing coverage of seven of the 435 U.S. congressional districts during the 2008 campaign. Each offers a different prism through which to view U.S. politics. For more information, see U.S Elections — State and Local.
