05 August 2008

2008 Presidential Race Shatters Old Barriers for Candidates

National political scene finally moving past Cold War and Vietnam War eras

Mitt Romney sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

By Eric Green
Staff Writer

Washington -- In 2008, U.S. politics is moving beyond the influence of the Cold War and Vietnam War eras, analysts say, adding that this shift and the expected nomination of an African American to the presidency makes the upcoming election different from previous presidential campaigns.

Carl Pinkele, a politics and government professor at Ohio Wesleyan University, told America.gov that 2008 is likely the last election where a Vietnam War veteran, such as presumed Republican nominee John McCain, will play the leading role for either major political party. Pinkele added that this probably is also the first election “without some significant lingering impact of the old Cold War.”

The professor said there is no way to measure the long-term significance of Barack Obama becoming the first African-American presidential nominee from a major political party. The 2008 vote is also unique in that New York Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton came very close to being the first female nominee from a major party.

Even though Obama defeated her for the nomination, Pinkele said Clinton’s run in the Democratic primaries has “tremendous long-term consequences” in inspiring more women and members of minorities to make bids for the White House.

For the last 48 years, Pinkele said, “it’s been a real small club on both sides” of the political fence of Americans who have been serious contenders for the U.S. presidential nomination.

He said from that perspective, both McCain and Obama are candidates “outside the fraternity” of previous elections. “Obama, in a sense, is integrating a fraternity,” Pinkele said.

Pinkele said that if Obama wins the election and Democrats control both chambers of the U.S. Congress by increased margins following the November 4 vote, the likelihood is high that public policy “across the board will shift some to the left” of the political spectrum “on virtually all the issues.”

Senior citizens, with whom Pinkele said he can identify because he is four years younger than the 71-year-old McCain, are “always very important” in American elections, both because of their large numbers and because they are very likely to vote.

Even though older voters remain very concerned about Social Security, the federal system to guarantee income after retirement, seniors also have concerns in a time of “rationing scarce dollars” about being able to pay their energy and health care bills, said Pinkele. The very old and the very young put the most financial strain on the country’s health care system, he said.

2008 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks with reporters.

RISE OF OBAMA, MCCAIN REFLECTS NEW U.S. DEMOGRAPHICS

Dan Schnur, who was national communications director for McCain’s unsuccessful presidential bid in 2000, told America.gov that Obama’s expected nomination, while “incredibly important in itself,” reflects broader demographic changes in the U.S. population.

The 2008 election also produced the first “plausible” Hispanic candidate in New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and a plausible Mormon candidate in Republican former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, said Schnur, who has been named the new director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

Schnur said 2008 will be the country’s most important election since 1980, because of “some fundamental choices to be made about America’s role in the world -- militarily, economically and diplomatically.”

As in 1980, Schnur said, the U.S. economy is in a downswing, but in 1980 the American and global economies were not “fundamentally changing” the way they are today. Another difference from 28 years ago is that the United States was engaged in a “fairly static Cold War with the Soviet Union,” as opposed to now having to confront a global terrorist threat.

In addition, the contemporary “effects of globalization and emerging economies” present a more challenging set of circumstances for the United States than did the conditions in 1980, Schnur said.

Schnur said that just as Obama’s expected nomination reflects broad demographic changes in America, so does McCain’s presumed nomination reflect the makeup of the country’s older population.

Since Ronald Reagan ran for president in 1976, Schnur said, medical advances and lengthening life spans mean that older Americans now play a fundamentally different role in society than before.

Today’s older voters, many of whom are “baby boomers” having been born after the end of World War II in 1945, “have a much different idea than their parents of what it means to be a senior citizen” in American society, Schnur said.

Schnur said some older Americans will not vote for McCain because they will say “’it’s not good to have someone of my age’” as president. But those people, he said, probably would not vote for McCain no matter his age.

Overall, Schnur said, older voters will “almost certainly” form McCain’s “strongest base of support” for president.

See also “United States at Turning Point” as Voters Go to Polls November 4.”