16 January 2009
North Korean, Iranian Nuclear Efforts Pose Early Test for Obama
Bipartisan support exists for a range of nonproliferation measures
Washington — Arms control specialists from the Bush and Clinton eras warn that the most pressing problem for the new Obama administration will be finding a way to halt the nuclear weapons programs of Iran and North Korea.
Departing Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman told a U.S. Institute of Peace conference January 8 that there is bipartisan support that the new president can build a policy upon to address this proliferation problem effectively. But the new president needs to act swiftly, he said, because potential proliferation in the Middle East and East Asia would create an immense problem if weapons were not properly safeguarded.
The new administration must prevent a scenario in which weapons reach a terrorist group, said panelist Wendy Sherman, who will advise incoming Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Sherman, former North Korean policy coordinator during Bill Clinton’s presidency, said the effort to eliminate nuclear programs from the Korean Peninsula also will require an enormous amount of international engagement.
Former Secretary of Defense William Perry said the world faces a danger of cascading proliferation of nuclear-armed nations if the evolving programs of North Korea and Iran cannot be contained. “We are at a tipping point of nuclear proliferation,” he said.
Perry, who has worked on nuclear policy and arms control issues throughout his career and is now a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, said North Korea’s plutonium production and its October 2006 nuclear test are the most dangerous developments since the end of the Cold War. Yet he also said he believes a diplomatic solution can be found.
Perry was less confident about turning around Iran’s nuclear ambition, particularly because, in his opinion, European Union talks with Iran seem to be going nowhere. Compounding the problem, he said, is Israel’s view of the situation. Israel will not sit by idly, he warned, while Iran takes its final steps to becoming a nuclear power.
Speaking as part of a panel discussion in Washington on a new security paradigm, Perry said President-elect Barack Obama likely will face “a crisis point” with Iran in his first year in office.
Perry said reversing nuclear proliferation will require compelling U.S. leadership, and he praised Obama’s strong stand during the presidential campaign, when Obama called for a world free of nuclear weapons. Obama qualified his statement, however, by saying that as long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States must retain a credible, safe, secure and reliable nuclear deterrent.
The Bush administration’s adviser on nuclear nonproliferation, Robert Joseph, said that if the United States does not maintain a safe, credible nuclear deterrent, it risks losing the confidence of its allies, who look to the U.S. nuclear umbrella for security.
Perry said Obama should sensitize the world to the dangers of nuclear weapons and at the same time reduce stockpiles. At the outset, he said, the new president should invite the Russians to negotiate a new treaty to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in each nation.
Obama should also work with the Senate to obtain its advice and consent for the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) banning all nuclear explosions, Perry said. He also said the president-elect should propose a verifiable fissile material cutoff treaty to ban the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons use.
Sherman and Perry both urged greater U.S. support for the International Atomic Energy Agency in its mission to strengthen the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
All suggestions of the panelists were in keeping with statements at Hillary Clinton’s confirmation hearing January 13 before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in which she said the Obama administration would take the lead in “working with others to reduce current nuclear stockpiles and prevent the development and use of dangerous new weaponry.” She pledged to work with Russia to take missiles in both countries “off hair-trigger alert.”
Clinton said the United States would work to shore up the nonproliferation regime, seek Senate ratification of the test ban treaty and revive negotiations for a treaty banning fissile material production.
For more information on U.S. policy, see “Hillary Clinton, Senators Seek U.S.-Russia Effort on Arms Control.”
