11 February 2009
Analysis of Mumbai Terrorist Attack Shows Strategic Planning
Safe havens are key enablers for terrorist groups, study says
Washington — Those behind the terrorist attack in Mumbai, India, demonstrated a significant level of strategic thought that makes their group particularly dangerous, according to a recent study by the RAND Corporation, a public policy research organization.
“The defining characteristic of the Mumbai attack, and what makes it so alarming, is not just the ruthless killing, but the meticulous planning and preparation that went into the operation,” says Brian Michael Jenkins, a leading terrorism expert and senior adviser at RAND who worked on the study.
“The goal was not only to slaughter as many people as possible, but to target specific groups of people and facilities with political, cultural and emotional value. This indicates a level of strategic thought — a strategic culture — that poses a difficult challenge: not whether we can outgun the terrorists, but can we outthink them?”
The study’s researchers argue that the level of thought devoted to the attack, which killed at least 173 people and wounded another 308 people, demonstrates a strategic approach present in the planning, implementation and conduct of the attack that has not been seen before the attack by this group, and may indicate the development of an escalating terrorist campaign in South Asia.
“The Mumbai attack reflected precise planning, detailed reconnaissance, and thorough preparation, both physical and mental,” the study says. “It relied on surprise, creating confusion and overwhelming the ability of the authorities to respond. And it required determined execution by suicide attackers who nonetheless were able to operate effectively over an extended period of time.”
Evidence collected by Indian authorities and others indicates that the group responsible for the attacks was Lashkar-e-Taiba. One lone terrorist attacker — Ajmal Amir Kasab — survived the attack and was captured alive by Indian authorities.
Given the terrorists’ effort to maximize the psychological impact of the attacks, future attacks from this group of terrorists will aim for large-scale casualties and greater symbolic targets, according to the study’s key judgments.
On November 26, 2008, terrorists struck at 10 locations across Mumbai, India’s financial and entertainment capital and its largest city, and were finally brought under control by November 29 by Mumbai police and India’s National Security Guards.
SAFE HAVENS CONTINUE AIDING TERRORISM
The study — conducted by 10 RAND researchers and terrorism experts — argues that “safe havens continue to be key enablers for terrorist groups. Safe havens allow terrorist leaders to recruit, select, and train their operators and make it easier for terrorists to plan and execute complex operations.”
At the strategic level, the Mumbai attack shows the urgent need for addressing the transnational sources of regional terrorism, the study says.
And there is a danger in this type of attack that the attackers had local assistance from segments of the population that have become radicalized, the study says, which remains a significant political and social challenge.
The attackers designed the assault to do what the authorities were not expecting: seek a high casualty count, go after significant local targets and cause economic damage, the study says.
“Since attacks against high-profile soft targets are relatively easy and cheap to mount, such institutions will remain targets of future attacks,” the study concludes. “The protection of those targets presents particularly difficult challenges.”
The complete RAND study, “The Lessons of Mumbai,” can be found on the RAND Corporation Web site.
