12 March 2008

Overriding Interests Help Prevent South American Conflict

Trade, economic concerns powerfully link Andean region, analysts say

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won praise for helping to avert war in Latin America. (© AP Images)

By Eric Green
Staff Writer

Washington -- Overriding trade and economic interests helped defuse a potential outbreak of violence in South America’s Andean region, analysts tell America.gov.

The three countries involved in the crisis -- Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador -- are “profoundly interconnected in multiple ways,” which averted a situation in which war could have broken out in that region, said Michael Shifter, vice president for policy of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.

Shifter said the trade and economic interests in the region “trumped all of the nationalist sentiments that were aroused” by the crisis, which involved a Colombian military raid in Ecuador against a left-wing guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The FARC has been fighting for more than 40 years to overthrow the Colombian government.

Colombian forces killed Raúl Reyes, FARC’s second-in-command, and 23 others in the March 1 raid on the guerrillas' camp in Ecuador. Venezuela and Ecuador accused Colombia of violating Ecuador's sovereignty and sent troops to the Colombian border. Latin American leaders reached agreement on ending the crisis for now at a March 7 meeting in the Dominican Republic. (See “Rice Urges Resolution to the Colombian-Ecuadorian Crisis.”)

Shifter said the situation “reflects enormous mistrust” among the Andean region’s governments, “which explains why” Colombian President Álvaro Uribe “did not consult first” with Ecuador’s president, Rafael Correa, before launching the Colombian raid into Ecuadoran territory.

The fact that the governments of Venezuela and Ecuador “reacted in such an exaggerated and angry fashion to what Colombia did is disappointing and quite ominous for the prospects of stable peace in the Andes,” said Shifter.

Shifter credited Brazil for playing a “positive role in defusing tensions and helping pave the way for a solution to the crisis.” Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has legitimacy in the eyes of the presidents of the three countries involved in the crisis and helped greatly to ease the situation, Shifter said. He added that engaging in crisis-resolution is part of the responsibility Brazil holds as a regional power.

The Organization of American States (OAS), said Shifter, also responded “swiftly and responsibly” in convening an emergency meeting in Washington about the crisis in which the inter-American group fashioned a compromise and set up a fact-finding mission to ease tensions. Shifter said the OAS is limited in what it can achieve, because “it is only a reflection” of the Western Hemisphere’s “political relations, which are quite tense at the moment.”

Colombian President Álvaro Uribe speaks at a March 7 meeting on Colombia’s incursion into Ecuador. (© AP Images)

Shifter said Colombia’s Uribe needed U.S. backing during the dispute, but the “perception” that Bogota is a “proxy for Washington is widespread and probably not very helpful in the long term for Colombia’s position in the Andean region.”, However, he added, U.S. support for Colombia was “understandable” because the two countries are steadfast allies.

VENEZUELAN LEADER LINKED TO FARC

Another analyst, Riordan Roett, says Colombia-Venezuela trade ties are very important to Venezuela and because of that it was in Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s “interest to end the affair.”

Roett, a professor and the director of the Latin American Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, said Chávez wanted “to try and contain information regarding his involvement with the FARC over the years,” that was revealed in laptop computers uncovered in the Colombian raid into Ecuador.

The rapid diplomatic solution reached in the Dominican Republic, Roett said, “indicates that all the players want to return to the status quo ante” -- the way things were before the crisis began.

Roett said he does not believe the “incident will open the door to further conflicts.”

Eduardo Gamarra, a political science professor at Florida International University in Miami, agrees that war does not seem likely in the region. But he added that “this thing could deteriorate again overnight … that’s why the OAS [fact-finding] mission [to the region] is so important,” Gamarra said.

He said a crisis could be reignited by such developments as a single “outrageous statement” by Venezuela’s Chávez or Ecuador’s Correa.

Susan Kaufman Purcell, director of the University of Miami’s Center for Hemispheric Policy, said the crisis has been eased only “temporarily” because the FARC still exists and “my guess is that Venezuela is not going to change its behavior in terms of helping the FARC.”

Purcell said the crisis makes it “absolutely necessary” that the U.S. Congress pass the pending U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement to reinforce the Colombian economy during its time of need. Purcell said passing the trade pact is a “national security issue” for the United States and Colombia.