PEACE & SECURITY | Creating a more stable world
10 April 2008
Assessment Needed Before Reducing Iraq Troops, U.S. Officials Say
Recommendations, evaluation will follow
Washington -- The most senior U.S. officials in Iraq believe there has been progress since the surge in additional military forces was initiated in 2007 by President Bush, but time is needed to assess the surge’s longer-term impact before further reductions in the number of troops can be implemented.
U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and General David Petraeus, military commander of U.S.-led coalition forces in Iraq, emphasized in a lengthy press briefing April 10 that there are significant political and security components to be evaluated before deciding how rapidly and how many forces can be withdrawn from Iraq.
Current plans call for the withdrawal of five Army combat brigades and two Marine battalions by July. Petraeus said that after the withdrawal of those surge forces, he has asked the president for a 45-day period of consolidation and evaluation to be followed by a longer period of assessment. Bush announced April 10 that he would accept the recommendations from Crocker and Petraeus and indicated that a sizeable force will remain in Iraq after a new U.S. president takes office in January 2009.
The president has not changed his approach to the status of forces in Iraq since initial military operations began in 2003. He has based his decisions on the recommendations of military and civilian leaders in Iraq, who make their determinations based on conditions there.
During extensive hearings over two days before congressional committees, Crocker and Petraeus said the surge has been effective in reducing the level of violence and the Iraqi government has made progress in resolving political issues. But they also warned the committees that the progress is fragile and reversible.
The oversight hearings were held by four congressional committees to determine if U.S. policies have been achieving desired goals or if a significant change is required.
"As we've explained over the last couple of days ... we are on track to redeploy over one-quarter of our ground combat forces: five of 20 brigade combat teams, two Marine battalions. And it's that substantial reduction that has led to the recommendation to let the dust settle for a bit, certainly to do assessment while the dust is still settling," Petraeus said.
Crocker reiterated crucial points made in testimony that overall violence in Iraq is down, but that it is becoming readily apparent that neighboring Iran has played a role in arming and rearming insurgents. He said the United States is prepared to undertake another round of three-party security talks with Iranian representatives if the Iraqis want to take that step.
"The Iraqi government did make a statement several days ago that they would like to convene such talks," Crocker said.
Crocker also said that the United States is negotiating a "Status of Forces" agreement with the Iraqi government for the continuing mission in Iraq after the U.N. mandate expires at the end of this year. "It will also have, of course, Iraq-specific elements, in particular the authorities and protections that our forces are going to need after the expiration of the [U.N.] Security Council resolution at the end of the year, which currently provides those authorities," he said.
And the United States also is negotiating a broader strategic framework agreement that will set out parameters for cooperation in other areas -- political, economic, diplomatic, scientific, cultural, and security, he said. "I would anticipate that in the course of those discussions, which will take place at a political rather than a technical level, there is going to be the opportunity to focus on where the Iraqi leadership is trying to go in terms of political and economic development," he said.
Crocker also said that the holding of provincial elections later this year is critical to furthering the growth of democracy and representative government in Iraq. The prospect of increased violence around the time of the elections, he said, is no reason not to hold them.
"These elections will be a very important step in Iraq's political development. A single election does not make an institutionalized democracy, but series of elections does," he said.
