24 September 2008
Both U.S. Presidential Candidates “Profoundly Shaped” by Asia
Obama, McCain likely to have similar polices toward Asia as president
Washington – U.S.-Asian relations under the next U.S. administration are unlikely to vary much based on whether Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain wins the U.S. presidential race in November, according to senior foreign policy advisers to both candidates.
“We have two men running for president, both of whom have been profoundly shaped by Asia in very profoundly different ways,” says Frank Jannuzi, an East Asia specialist for the Democratic staff of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “I think that bodes well for our country, given the preponderance of Asia looming large economically [and] strategically.”
McCain, a former U.S. Navy pilot, spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam after he was shot down and severely wounded on a bombing mission in 1967.
Obama lived in Indonesia as a child with his U.S.-born mother and stepfather Lolo Soetoro, a native Indonesian. Obama attended public schools in Jakarta for about four years, returning to his home state of Hawaii at age 10.
According to Jannuzi: “No matter who wins, you’re going to have someone who has an appreciation for how vital this region is to the future of the world and especially for our own economic future and economic and defense security.”
Jannuzi was among the speakers examining the approaches the candidates might take toward Asia at a debate sponsored by the National Bureau of Asian Research, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution. Held September 22 at the National Press Club in Washington, the debate attracted an audience of some 300 people.
Speaking for the McCain camp were Dan Blumenthal, a resident fellow in Asian studies for the American Enterprise Institute and member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Commission, and Michael Green, the senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Ambassador Robert Gelbard joined Jannuzi in speaking for the Obama campaign. Gelbard, who spent 35 years as a diplomat with the U.S. Department of State, is now chairman and co-founder of Washington Global Partners LLC, which provides strategic advisory and consulting services to governments, multinational companies and international organizations.
McCain, according to Green, understands that American credibility and leadership in Asia depend on “the credibility of the American word on trade, on our agreements to allies and on our agreements to human rights and democracy.”
In these three areas, Green said, McCain “has been consistent and willing to take on his own [Republican] Party and has made the case to the American people …. He stands by his word.”
Obama, according to Gelbard, wants structural changes in the U.S. economy that would allow a more “robust” engagement with Asia. Jannuzi added that Obama seeks to strengthen alliances in Asia – particularly with Japan – and maintain U.S. forward-deployed forces in the region and strengthen them if necessary.
CHINA
Regarding China, Jannuzi said Obama seeks to exploit areas of common interests.
“We are going to have differences, especially on human rights and the pace of their democratization, which we hope to accelerate,” Jannuzi said. “But ultimately we cannot afford to wait for China to become a multiparty democracy before we engage with them on energy security, before we work with them on North Korea, before we work with them on global warming, before we try to make sure the products coming to our country are safe. These things must be dealt with on an urgent basis.”
McCain, Blumenthal said, believes in engaging China; but the best way to get reform in China “is to have strong democratic allies along the periphery.”
McCain explained this himself at a 2005 dinner for a group of prominent Chinese Americans. “We should not only engage [China]; we also need to hedge.”
The Arizona senator defined “hedging” as “maintaining our military presence in East Asia, strengthening our alliance with Japan and our relations with other Asian countries, and working through groups like the APEC [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] forum to further American interests and values.”
On Taiwan, Jannuzi said that Obama believes the Taiwan Relations Act has been “neglected.” The United States should welcome efforts to reach agreement across the Straits, but China and Taiwan must work out their own solutions, he said.
McCain, Green said, would not freeze arms sales to Taiwan and would continue to support “successful models of democracy.”
FREE TRADE
Both campaigns emphasized the importance implementing the U.S.-South Korean Free Trade Agreement. Although the agreement, also known as KORUS FTA, was signed by both governments in June 2007, the U.S. Congress has yet to approve it.
Congress wants South Korea to reopen its market to all forms of U.S. beef and is concerned that the FTA does not adequately open the Korean automobile market to U.S. imports.
Obama’s advisers said the candidate shares congressional concerns and said KORUS needs “further work.” Nonetheless, Obama “strongly supports” the general principles of free trade, they said.
McCain’s advisers emphasized that their candidate fully supports KORUS in its present form and emphasized that its implementation would represent “an enormous building block” for substantial engagement with the region.
NORTH KOREA
On North Korea, the Obama and McCain advisers agreed the United States must continue to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons aspirations.
The Obama camp blamed a lack of consistent talks for the current stalemate; the McCain side urged “engagement with consequences,” but did not list specifics.
For additional information, see “Republicans Say John McCain Will Listen to American Allies,” “Democrats Stress Barack Obama’s Willingness to Work with Allies” and “U.S.-South Korean Free-Trade Agreement Signed.”
