TRANSITION | Forming the next government
10 September 2008
Presidential Race Statistical Tie in Swing State Florida
State has improved voting systems since 2000 election
Viera, Florida — With less than two months left in the U.S. election campaign, at least one Florida poll shows Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama in a statistical tie.
A Fox News/Rasmussen Report telephone survey of likely Florida voters, reported September 8, shows both candidates at 48 percent. Results suggest the race remains extremely close and victory likely will be determined by voters who have yet to make up their minds.
Jim Greer, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said he “looks forward to a spirited sprint to the finish over the next several weeks,” while State Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman expressed concern about the polls being skewed because they lack a representative sample of young people.
Many political observers consider success in Florida a key to victory, just as it was in 2000. Both campaigns blanketed Florida markets with television ads, including ads in Spanish targeting the state’s sizable Hispanic population.
Political expert Michael Barone points out in his Almanac of American Politics that the state has trended Republican since the 1990s despite the edge enjoyed by registered Democrats. During the past 10 presidential elections, the Republican candidate carried Florida eight times.
Democratic National Committeeman Rudy Parker said Obama’s African-American background will be “a factor in some places” in Florida and there has been “a lot of misinformation put out about the man.”
THE LONG SHADOW OF THE HANGING CHAD
Although leaders of opposing political parties often disagree, in Florida, government and political party officials share a common goal: problem-free elections on November 4.
Florida officials — and most Americans who remember the 2000 presidential election — are eager to avoid any problems with voting machines in the 2008 contest.
The 2000 presidential race ultimately was determined by the outcome in Florida. In the weeks following the election, officials spent countless hours recounting ballots before the Supreme Court of the United States confirmed that the state’s 27 electoral votes belonged to President Bush based on a miniscule 537-vote margin.
The controversy involved three of Florida’s 67 counties, the only counties in the state that used punch-card ballots.
Other balloting systems encountered problems, but the punch cards caused the most trouble. If the punched-out portion, known as a chad, did not completely separate from the card, the machine that read the results could not properly record votes. Additionally, one county used a “butterfly ballot” that called for voters to select candidates on two sides of the card, an approach that confused some voters.
After that election, states across the country took a wide range of measures to avoid similar problems in the future. The federal government passed the Help America Vote Act and funded replacement of punch-card voting systems. (See “New Tools Encourage Americans To Exercise Right to Vote.”)
In 2004, a number of Florida counties used touch-screen units, which have been criticized by some who are concerned that they do not provide paper copy accountability of their reliability.
For the 2008 election, all Florida counties are using paper ballots that are read by optical scan machines. Only disabled voters may use touch-screen units. By 2012, these machines are scheduled to be replaced with new ones that allow persons with disabilities to fill out a paper ballot and can provide paper confirmation in a recount.
Florida allows absentee ballots as well as early voting at election headquarters buildings. To save on printing costs, the elections office has a “ballot on demand” machine used only for these votes. A voter’s precinct and party affiliation are entered in a computer and the machine issues the proper ballot to use. To ensure there will be no “double voting,” the computer also records a voter’s participation in the registration lists sent to each precinct on Election Day.
As have other states, Florida has experienced some minor problems with its voting systems since 2000, most notably in an August Palm Beach County judicial race in which the county conducted a recount after the initial count showed just 17 votes separated the candidates. The recount found 3,500 fewer ballots than officials recorded on the day of the election, spurring concern that some ballots have been misplaced. The outcome of that race remains unclear.
