21 October 2008

Special Election in Mississippi Garners National Attention

Competitive Senate contest unusual in typically Republican state

Senator Roger Wicker faces a tough contest to keep the seat to which he was appointed by Mississippi’s governor.

By Charles Hays Burchfield
Special Correspondent

Oxford, Mississippi — The economic crisis, two wars and an unpopular Republican president are making the special Senate election in Mississippi a competitive race.

“This seat shouldn’t be in play,” said John Bruce, associate professor of political science at the University of Mississippi. “It shouldn’t be close here. It goes to show it’s a really crappy year to be running as a Republican.”

The Mississippi contest is garnering national attention because it symbolizes a struggling year for Republican congressional candidates and because it is one of the races that could give Democrats in the Senate the 60 votes they need to place a time limit on consideration of a bill and bring it to a vote.

Trent Lott, a long-serving senator and a leader in the Republican Party, resigned in December 2007. Mississippi’s Republican governor, Haley Barbour, appointed Republican Roger Wicker to fill the Senate seat until a special election could be held. To keep the seat, Wicker must defeat a former Democratic governor, Ronnie Musgrove, in the November 4 election.

Wicker was the representative from Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District, so his appointment left that seat in the House of Representatives vacant. It was filled in an election on May 13 by Democrat Travis Childers. Childers’ victory in a strongly Republican region was cited by political experts as a sign of troubles the party would face in the upcoming general election. (See “Democrats Poised to Make Big Gains in Congress, Experts Say.”)

The ballot in that election was nonpartisan, just as the one November 4 will be for the special Senate race, according to Pamela Weaver, spokeswoman for the Mississippi secretary of state. Candidates in a nonpartisan election are not identified by party affiliation on a ballot.

Bruce said not having the “D” printed beside Musgrove’s name on the ballot would help him in this Republican stronghold state.

“As a former state governor, Musgrove benefits from name recognition,” Bruce said. “Wicker doesn’t have a reputation in the southern part of the state.”

A few lesser-known candidates also are running for the Senate seat, so it is possible no candidate will win more than 50 percent of the vote November 4. Mississippi is one of the few states that require a candidate be elected by a majority (more than 50 percent) of the ballots cast rather than simply the highest number of votes. If no candidate receives a majority on Election Day, a runoff election will be held November 25, according to Barbour spokesman Pete Smith. The winner will serve the remainder of Lott’s scheduled term, through 2012, Smith said.

Mississippi is one of two states electing two U.S. senators in 2008. In Wyoming, a special election is being held to fill the remaining term of Craig Thomas, who died of leukemia in 2007. Republicans Mike Enzi (elected incumbent) and John Barrasso (appointed incumbent) seem likely to retain their seats.

A bad year for Republicans could help former Mississippi Governor Ronnie Musgrove win a Senate seat.

STATE SUPREME COURT RULES ON SPECIAL ELECTION

The special Senate election in Mississippi spawned two lawsuits in early 2008 that were decided by the Mississippi Supreme Court. The first involved the timing of the election.

Barbour called for the special election to be held November 4, while Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood, a Democrat, called for the special election to be held during the state’s primary election on March 11. The dispute boiled down to an interpretation of a state statute, according to Matthew Hall, associate professor of law at the University of Mississippi.

“The statute isn’t perfectly written.” Hall said. “I think the average person would find the statute clear, but the governor had a tortured reading of it.”

State law gives the governor 100 days after being notified of a resignation to hold a special election unless the vacancy occurs in a year when a general state or congressional election is scheduled, Hall said.

Barbour argued the exception meant unless there is a general election within the next 365 days. Hood argued the law meant a calendar year: Because the vacancy occurred in 2007 but after the 2007 general election, the exception did not hold.

In a 7 to 2 decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court sided with Barbour. Two justices, in a dissenting opinion, called the majority’s opinion “gobbledygook.”

The later election date might end up hurting Wicker rather than helping him, as many speculate was Barbour’s goal in fighting for the delay.

“Wicker would’ve won if the election had been in March,” Bruce said. “Having [Barack] Obama on the ballot in November instead of Hillary [Clinton] has mobilized the African-American community in Mississippi, which helps Musgrove.”

The second lawsuit involved whether the candidates’ names would appear near the top of the ballot with the other federal races or at the bottom of the ballot, as the governor had directed.

In an 8 to 1 decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court, citing a clearly written state statute, said the race should be listed near the top of the ballot.

The key to the Mississippi special Senate race is voter turnout, according to Bruce. He said Senator John McCain will probably carry Mississippi in the presidential race, but McCain’s margin of victory in the state will affect the special Senate race.

“If some McCain voters stay home because they think he can’t win nationwide, it could be enough for Musgrove to win the Senate seat,” Bruce said.