02 October 2008

The 13 Keys to the White House

Formula covers incumbent administration’s performance, economy, candidates

Will the 13 keys formula predict the next resident of the White House?

A Russian scientist and an American historian have developed a method to predict who will win the popular vote in a U.S. presidential election. In the last six elections, the method has never failed. (See “Formula Forecasts Presidential Elections Months in Advance.”)

The following information is taken from The 13 Keys to the Presidency by Allan J. Lichtman and Ken DeCell, Madison Books, 1990.

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The statements below favor re-election of the incumbent party.

When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. Historian Allan J. Lichtman’s answers for the 2008 presidential election are in bold.

1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE

2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE
(Lichtman defines a serious contest as one that is not decided before the party’s convention.)

3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE

4. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
(A significant third-party candidate is one with a realistic chance of getting 5 percent or more of the popular vote.)

5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
(Economists define recession as two consecutive quarters of falling gross national product (GNP), a condition that has not occurred in the United States in 2008.)

6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE

7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE

8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE

9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
(A major scandal is one in which the president is personally implicated, for example Watergate or the Clinton impeachment.)

10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE

11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. FALSE

12. The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
(National hero is defined as an individual who successfully leads a nation through war)

13. The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

The number of false statements above equals eight, according to Lichtman, so the challenging party should win.

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