30 June 2008
Democrats Poised to Make Big Gains in Congress, Experts Say
Bleak outlook for congressional Republicans not likely to affect McCain’s race
Washington -- The ongoing U.S. presidential race still grabs most of the headlines, but many congressional contests are heating up as well. Months before Election Day, political experts are already predicting big gains for the Democrats in the U.S Congress.
Among the thousands of U.S. officials to be elected November 4 are all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 members of the U.S. Senate this year. Political pundits and party members are watching dozens of highly competitive contests throughout the country.
Congress’ approval rating is currently low -- just 19 percent of those recently polled by Gallup/USA Today said they approve of how Congress is doing its job -- but the approval rating is significantly lower for congressional Republicans than Democrats. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported 52 percent of Americans prefer Congress be controlled by Democrats, while 33 percent say they favor Republican control.
Democrats currently are the majority party in both houses of Congress, having won control with big wins in the 2006 midterm elections. Political experts expect Democrats to retain control of both chambers in 2009.
“Right now it looks like an absolute landslide for the Democrats,” Jefrey Pollock, president of Global Strategy Group, told journalists at the Foreign Press Center in New York City June 24. Global Strategy Group conducts polling for many Democratic leaders.
LOOK AHEAD TO SENATE, HOUSE RACES
In the Senate, 12 Democratic incumbents are seeking re-election, and only one is expecting a competitive race. In contrast Republicans are defending 23 seats, five currently held by members who are retiring, and many of the remaining incumbents are facing tough re-election battles. Many Republican senators, including Oregon’s Gordon Smith and Minnesota’s Norm Coleman are already in the midst of tight contests, while Democrats are looking to pick up seats currently held by retiring Republicans in places like Virginia and New Mexico.
In the House of Representatives, there are more than two dozen Republicans retiring, giving Democrats stronger opportunities to win these soon-to-be-vacant seats than they likely would have had running against incumbents.
Republicans already have suffered three defeats in 2007 in “places where the Democrat should not be winning,” Pollock said. In special congressional elections held in Mississippi, Louisiana and Illinois, voters selected Democratic candidates despite their districts’ conservative leanings. (See “Congressional Vacancies Filled By Special Elections.”)
There are many reasons Republican congressional candidates are struggling. History shows that when Americans are frustrated, as many are currently with the state of the Iraq war and the economy, their support for the party that holds the White House erodes. Additionally, the Republican National Congressional Committee, set up to help the party’s congressional candidates, has raised much less money than its Democratic counterpart in recent months.
But not every Democrat has an easy race: Pennsylvania Congressman Jason Altmire faces a tough re-election fight against a familiar foe, former Republican Congresswoman Melissa Hart, whom he defeated in 2006. (To learn more about these and other high profile congressional races, see America.gov’s State and Local Web page.)
Pollock predicted that the Democrats could win an additional 25 House seats, and potentially could get “to that magic 60 number” in the Senate, but other political experts are skeptical that the Democrats can reach that number. Holding 60 seats is important because 60 votes are needs to end a filibuster (a parliamentary procedure that allows senators to block or delay votes on a measure or nomination). Currently, 49 Democratic senators and the Democratic caucusing Independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders give the Democrats their narrow edge.
Kellyanne Conway, president of the polling company™ inc., an organization that conducts polling for Republicans, said one reason Democrats have been successful in recent congressional contests is that many of their new candidates share the same views as their typically Republican voters. Many of these candidates are pro-life, anti-taxes, pro-gun rights – views typically associated with Republicans. These Democrats were “acting like Republicans in these important races where the constituencies are much more conservative.”
A poor outlook for Republican congressional candidates will not necessarily hinder presumed Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s campaign. Most nationwide polls currently show McCain and Obama in a close contest, likely because voters identify McCain as “a maverick, an independent,” rather than as a typical Republican, Conway said.
