29 January 2008
Prospect of Dynasties Not Swaying U.S. 2008 Presidential Vote
Clinton college teacher says Bush policies influencing election
Washington -– American voters seem unconcerned by the prospect of “political dynasties” maintaining their hold on the White House, several political analysts and pollsters tell America.gov.
Juan Williams, senior correspondent for National Public Radio, says public opinion polls show that “voters don’t really care very much” that, since 1989, either a Clinton or a Bush has been the nation’s chief executive. If Hillary Clinton wins the 2008 presidential election and serves a four-year term ending in January 2013, the U.S. government will have been headed by members of just two families for 24 years.
George Herbert Walker Bush was president from 1989 to 1993, followed by Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001, succeeded by George W. Bush, whose second term ends in 2009.
Williams is also a contributing political analyst for the Fox News Channel, and author of critically acclaimed books on U.S. race relations, among other subjects. He said that in his travels covering the U.S. presidential election, voters never indicated to him that the Bush-Clinton-Bush cycle is a factor in their decision on whether to vote for the former first lady or for one or her Democratic rivals.
He said U.S. political dynasties appear to be more intriguing for foreign audiences. Williams said another Clinton as president might make it seem to the world “as if we have this kind of [anti-democratic] majesty bestowed upon people by birth.”
Williams said Americans might regard members of two families continuously serving as president as “contrary to what we think of as our national ethos.”
He added that world opinion currently seems to be “pretty critical” of the United States, a stance based in large part on opposition to the policies of the Bush administration.
“I don’t think the world is anti-American, I genuinely don’t believe that,” said Williams. “But I think the world disagrees with some” of Bush’s policies, “especially in the Middle East.”
A factor that might be diminishing voter support for Hillary Clinton, said Williams, is “antagonism” at the Clintons for their campaign tactics against Obama and concern that they would act as “co-presidents.”
VIEWS OF CLINTON’S COLLEGE ADVISER
Alan Schechter, professor emeritus of political science at Wellesley College in Massachusetts, said concern about political dynasties conceivably could become an issue in the Democratic presidential race.
But, if Clinton wins the nomination, the more important factor in the general election would be the “negative fallout” regarding Bush administration policies, said Schechter, an avowed supporter of the New York senator who was her college thesis adviser at Wellesley. (Her 1969 thesis addressed American community organizer Saul Alinsky’s anti-poverty movement.)
Schechter said he still keeps in touch with his former student and does a “little campaigning” for her around the United States.
The “out-party candidate,” meaning the Democratic nominee in 2008, will have the automatic advantage in the presidential general election, unless some “unforeseen event” occurs before the November 4 vote that would boost the Republican nominee’s prospects, Schechter said.
The real question regarding the Democratic nomination, said Schechter, is how much Obama can continue to sell himself as an “inspiring” figure to voters. Democratic and independent voters who choose Clinton will do so “because they want someone who is experienced regardless of the fact that it’s a second Clinton,” he said.
The professor said he sees two competing factors balancing out each other: Voters who “might be turned off by the concept of dynasty” versus voters “who are turned on by the presence” of Bill Clinton back in the White House.
“My bottom line: I don’t think the idea of [dynasty] is that significant,” said Schechter.
POLLSTERS WEIGH IN
Jeffrey Jones of the Gallup Poll in Princeton, New Jersey, said his firm’s polling substantiates the view that a majority of American voters do not care that two families have controlled the White House in recent years.
Gallup’s November 2-4, 2007, poll found that 54 percent of American voters hold this view. For those who do care, Jones said, 31 percent said dynasties are bad for the country, versus 13 percent who said they were good.
Jones said Republicans probably will use the idea of dynasty against Clinton if she becomes the Democratic nominee, just as the Democrats would employ the same tactic “if the tables were turned and Jeb Bush” (former Florida governor and brother of current President George W. Bush) was the Republican candidate.
“In the end, people are going to vote for who they want. If they like Hillary better than the Republican, I don’t think” the question of dynasty “will sway them,” said Jones.
Fritz Wentzel, director of communications for the Zogby International polling firm in Utica, New York, says voters tell his company they value a presidential candidate who represents “change” much more than one with “experience.”
Wentzel said his firm has not polled specifically on the question of political dynasties.
