U.S. ELECTIONS | Guide to the 2008 Election
20 February 2008
Turnout Mounts in U.S. Presidential Primaries
Democrats, especially, are voting in overwhelming numbers
Washington -- Conventional wisdom holds that presidential primaries and caucuses attract voters with high political motivation. Frequently, they are party activists or agenda-driven voters who stand on the left or right of the political spectrum. Not so in 2008.
Voting turnout records are being broken in most states. States report that more people have registered to vote. Precincts have run out of ballots because of the unexpected rush. And the voters represent a broader constituency than usual.
Caucus sites in Hawaii were overflowing, with lines snaking into the street on February 19. An estimated 10 times the 4,000 voters who caucused in 2004 cast ballots. Veteran U.S. senator from Hawaii Daniel Inouye told the Associated Press it was the largest turnout he had seen in 60 years of voting. “The fact that turnout was so extraordinary shows that democracy works,” he said. He waited in line nearly two hours to vote.
The same day, Wisconsin saw a similarly high turnout. Exit polls indicated about 15 percent were first-time voters. Precincts predicted final turnout figures between 35 and 50 percent.
Experts say the reasons for this enthusiasm are deep disapproval of current administration policies and the excitement generated by the two candidates in close contention for the Democratic nomination. Either candidate will make history: Hillary Clinton would be the first woman and Barack Obama would be the first African American to win the nomination of a major political party.
“The most open presidential race since at least 1952 has captured the public’s imagination. This is leading to large turnouts almost everywhere. Dissatisfaction with President Bush and the Iraq war have resulted in Democratic turnouts skyrocketing, setting new records in state after state,” University of Virginia election expert Larry J. Sabato told America.gov.
“By contrast,” he said, “GOP [Republican] voters are unhappy and their turnout is depressed, below earlier levels in many states.”
A recent report issued by American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate found that half the 24 states that held primaries on Super Tuesday, February 5, saw record voter turnouts.
Americans who vote regularly often take it as a sacred trust. As one woman told America.gov at a Maryland polling place February 12: “It’s very important for us to vote. We’ve voted in every election.” A man of Irish-Mexican descent said, “I always vote because it’s my duty,” recalling how his Irish mother insisted on the importance of voting.
But when faced with an uninspiring selection, voters stay away from the polls out of frustration, apathy or the belief that their vote will not make a difference.
That isn’t the case for Democrats in 2008. “I feel like this primary matters, that it’s still relevant. The decision isn’t already made,” Obama supporter Corrine Farrell told America.gov at a voting precinct in the nation's capital February 12.
According to a February 8-10 USA Today/Gallup Poll, 79 percent of Democrats say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this election,” as compared with 44 percent of Republicans, who don’t see McCain as much different from previous candidates. A majority -- in excess of 60 percent -- of Democrats polled see Clinton and Obama as better than most presidential candidates contesting in their lifetimes.
The large turnout may also be traced to the multiplicity of issues important to voters. Another recent USA Today/Gallup Poll found “Americans think everything is important.” Of the 14 issues respondents were asked about, all were ranked as either extremely or very important. Overall, the economy was at the top, followed by the war in Iraq. Other issues of concern include education, government corruption, health care, energy, the environment and immigration. Rankings differed slightly when broken down by party.
The implications of the increased enthusiasm and voter turnout for the November election remain a big question. Much will depend on who becomes the Democratic Party nominee.
Sabato cautions: “It’s a long time to November, and so we shouldn’t read too much into the primary results in January and February. At the same time, it’s a good early sign for the Democratic Party. The Democratic nominee will have to work hard to sustain all the interest, but it’s not a bad starting position.”
