U.S. ELECTIONS | Guide to the 2008 Election
20 February 2008
Texas Enjoys Unexpected Attention in Presidential Primary Battle
Candidates line up to compete for Senate, House seats
San Antonio -- Voters in southwest Texas’ 23rd Congressional District are enjoying national attention as the “Lone Star State” suddenly has become relevant to this year’s presidential candidates.
In most presidential election years, the major parties’ nominees are decided in other states, before Texans have the opportunity to vote.
This year will be the first time since 1968 that the Texas primary, on March 4, plays a role in determining the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.
Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are going all-out to win Texas, with personal appearances, big advertising campaigns and endorsements from prominent figures and groups.
On the Republican side, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has vowed to fight front-running contender Senator John McCain at least through the Texas primary.
The excitement over the presidential races could bring out record numbers of voters. That could have an effect on the Democratic primary for U.S. senator, and the Texas 23rd’s Republican primary to pick a challenger to run against Democratic Representative Ciro Rodriguez.
The leading Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate nomination is Rick Noriega, a state representative from Houston. His opponents include Ray McMurrey, a Corpus Christi schoolteacher.
Also running is Gene Kelly, an 81-year-old retired military lawyer who eight years ago won the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, despite not campaigning. Analysts believe voters confused him with the deceased dancer and movie star of the same name. San Antonio security guard Rhett Smith completes the field.
Noriega is favored by the Texas Democratic establishment to run in November against incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn.
Noriega is a lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard and has served in Afghanistan. He criticizes Cornyn’s support of President Bush’s Iraq war policy. Cornyn, who has only token opposition in the Republican primary, has declined to respond to Noriega. He says he will wait until the Democrats have chosen his opponent.
The national Democratic Party will be watching Noriega to see if he can win the primary without a runoff. Democratic pollsters say Cornyn, a first-term senator, is vulnerable. However, Cornyn has one huge advantage: he started his re-election campaign with $7.5 million in cash, compared with Noriega’s $968,000.
The Texas 23rd’s Republican congressional primary pits a wealthy lawyer and banker, Francisco “Quico” Canseco, against Lyle Larson, a former San Antonio city councilman and current Bexar County commissioner.
Canseco faces an uphill challenge, despite a larger, self-financed campaign fund. He only moved to San Antonio a few years ago from Laredo, where he lost a 2004 race for Congress. Meanwhile, Larson has represented the Republican stronghold of northwestern Bexar County since 1996. Larson says his constituents will make up about 60 percent of the 23rd’s Republican primary vote.
The 23rd’s former congressman, Republican Henry Bonilla, has endorsed Larson. “Lyle has a long history with the Republican Party,” Bonilla told the political newspaper Roll Call. “He has an incredibly strong reputation.” Bonilla lost to Democrat Rodriguez in a 2006 special election.
Rodriguez has raised about $1 million for the campaign while he awaits the outcome of the Republican primary.
Both national parties are watching the 23rd closely and could pump money and personnel into the campaign for the November general election, as they did in the 2006 contest.
With its large Hispanic population, the 23rd Congressional District also is expected to play a major role in the Clinton-Obama showdown in Texas, the biggest prize remaining in the primary season, with 228 delegates at stake.
Clinton has won the Hispanic vote in other big states, such as California, and experts say she will need strong support from Mexican Americans in Texas if she hopes to blunt Obama’s momentum.
“It’s one of the linchpins of [Clinton’s] strategy, to win Texas,” Clinton adviser Andy Hernandez, a former Democratic National Committee staff member, told the San Antonio Express/News.
Obama is not surrendering the Hispanic vote without a fight. He has hired Representative Rodriguez’s chief of staff, Adrian Saenz, as his Texas campaign director. Saenz is credited with directing Rodriguez’s victory over Bonilla two years ago.
For the Republicans, McCain would like to finish off Huckabee in Texas. The Arizona senator has won endorsements from all major Texas Republicans, including Governor Rick Perry, Cornyn, and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is considered a possible vice presidential running mate.
“John McCain is going to carry Texas,” says Representative Lamar Smith, whose San Antonio district adjoins the 23rd. He wants Huckabee to drop out to “benefit our party.”
But Huckabee is not persuaded. He believes he has strong support in the state, and he told NBC television, “We certainly see Texas in play.”
San Antonio’s former mayor, and Clinton supporter, Henry Cisneros, says the primary has brought unexpected drama to Texas.
As he puts it: “Who would have imagined Texas would have the say it’s going to have?”
