U.S. ELECTIONS | Guide to the 2008 Election
08 February 2008
Democratic Race Could Continue for Weeks or Months, Experts Say
As Republican race nears end, Obama and Clinton remain in tight contest
Washington -- Although the delegates still are being counted across the country, it is clear that neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton emerged from Super Tuesday as a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Voters showed up in record numbers February 5 and handed important victories to both Illinois Senator Obama and New York Senator Clinton.
Nationwide, Clinton narrowly earned more votes than Obama. But with the numbers so close -- with 14.6 million votes cast nationwide, Clinton earned about 53,000 more than Obama -- the Democrats' Super Tuesday race is being called a virtual tie by political experts.
Obama was the victor in more states, winning several less populous states such as Idaho and North Dakota by large margins. Clinton achieved victories in fewer states, but won the states with the largest number of delegates at stake, including California and New York.
Meanwhile, the votes in other states were extremely close. In New Mexico, nearly two days after ballots were cast, it still was unclear who earned the most votes. (See “No Presidential Nominees After Super Tuesday.”)
The winner of state popular votes is not important, Democratic media consultant Gary Nordlinger said February 6 in a State Department videoconference. "What you have to look at is who wins delegates," he said.
Unlike the Republican Party, which allows some states to give all their delegates to the winner, Democrats award their state delegates proportionally, based on the popular vote.
Close races in most states mean Clinton and Obama will split nearly evenly the number of delegates awarded on Super Tuesday, leaving both candidates far from securing the party's nomination.
REASONS FOR THE CLINTON, OBAMA SPLIT
Although they share similar views on most issues, Obama and Clinton have different bases of support, said pollster John Zogby, president of Zogby International. Obama's strength comes from his support from African Americans and young voters, while Clinton has had strong backing from Hispanics and older women.
Zogby told journalists at the State Department's Foreign Press Center (FPC) February 5 that it will take at least a few more weeks to determine who will win the nomination. "This is more than two personalities, Barack Obama versus Hillary Clinton. This is two warring demographics, each with a sense of destiny.”
“Women over the age of 45 are saying, ‘it is our turn. This is the last of the glass ceilings that needs to be broken,’” Zogby said. “African Americans are saying, ‘this is our turn.’”
“Barack Obama is not just an African American, he is in the tradition of hope and opportunity,” which is why he appeals to young voters, Zogby said.
THE ROAD AHEAD FOR DEMOCRATS
The candidates are turning their attention to a handful of states that are voting throughout the next week.
“Obama has an advantage in every one of these states,” said Thomas Mann, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Mann told journalists at the FPC February 5 that “he has a reasonable shot at dominating the contests for the next three weeks.”
Thus far, Obama has done well in most caucuses. Washington, Nebraska and Maine each will hold caucuses the weekend of February 9 and February 10. He also has an advantage in contests with sizable African-American populations, including Louisiana, which votes February 9, and in the Potomac Valley (Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia), where primaries will be held February 12.
Additionally, Obama has significantly more money available to run his campaign. In January, he raised $32 million while Clinton brought in $13 million.
However, Clinton thus far has done well in states with large populations, and is seen as having an advantage competing in March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas, where a significant number of delegates is at stake. Her campaign also is looking to the Pennsylvania contest on April 22 as another important opportunity.
Even if Clinton does not amass a great number of delegates in February, she could catch up with big wins in the delegate-rich states that vote in March and April.
The Democrats could continue their nomination contest for quite some time, but the Republican Party is close to having its nominee. Arizona Senator John McCain, who has a large lead in the delegate race, is the party’s de facto nominee after former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney withdrew from the race February 7. The official selection of the Republication nominee will be made at the Republican National Convention in early September.
The Democrats are not necessarily disadvantaged by their longer nomination process. Political experts say that Democrats still can come together as a party once the nominee is selected.
Mann said most Clinton supporters would support Obama if he is the nominee and vice versa.
The current division among Democrats does not reflect unhappiness with the party, Mann said, “but a real uncertainty on who to choose and a difference of opinion on who would do better in the general election and who would do better in office.”
