TRANSITION | Forming the next government
13 August 2008
Experts Ponder Why U.S. Presidential Contest Remains Tight
Political scientists unsure how racial factor will affect election
Washington -- Several factors explain why the 2008 U.S. campaign for president remains close, political experts tell America.gov.
Conventional wisdom says Barack Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee, should be running well ahead of John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee, because of polls showing Democrats in general far ahead of Republicans nationally and because Republican President George Bush has low favorability ratings with the American electorate.
But Scott de Marchi, a political science professor at Duke University in North Carolina, said the race seems tight “for a couple of reasons, mostly unrelated to the campaigns” the two candidates are waging.
McCain, said de Marchi, has “better name recognition at present -- he’s been a fixture of [American] political life for some time, and he has a very compelling story” that includes having been a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War.
In addition, Obama “had a much rougher ride” in the Democratic primaries than McCain confronted in the Republican primaries, “especially in terms of negative attacks” from Obama’s opponent, Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton.
“There's been doubt cast” about Obama’s perceived lack of experience in national politics, de Marchi said, “and it doesn't help” that the Illinois senator is African American. De Marchi pointed to political observers who cited Obama’s race as contributing to Clinton’s victories in the 2008 West Virginia and Pennsylvania Democratic primaries.
However, de Marchi said, Obama's race “helps him just as much in terms of the black vote,” making some states in the American South potentially competitive if there is a large black turnout in the region.
Obama also may gain from increased turnout among young people who favor the Illinois Democrat, de Marchi said. But “turnout is very difficult to predict. Anyone who tells you they know what this works out to be is overly confident,” he said.
Neither candidate, de Marchi said, is doing a great job with TV political commercials. Obama “still isn't presenting bold enough policy,” and McCain's “idiocy” for airing an ad comparing Obama to vacuous Hollywood celebrities “isn't helping him with anyone” who remains undecided.
De Marchi said he believes the contest is not “as close as the polls are showing.”
“It's increasingly hard to get valid polls, and if you look at some of the groups supporting Obama [youth and minorities], they don't have” landline phones and “can't be easily reached” by pollsters, he said.
“If you look at registration and fundraising, Obama has advantages,” de Marchi said. (See “Journalist Daniel Schorr Says Youth Vote Key to 2008 Election.”)
Ultimately, said de Marchi, “I’d bet on Obama” to win the presidency, “given the financial edge” he has over McCain and party registration patterns that favor the Democrat.
The bottom line, he said, is that it is still a month before the race typically heats up in September in anticipation of the November 4 vote. De Marchi said not many people are paying attention to the presidential race, despite heavy media coverage of the campaign.
OBAMA, MCCAIN CONSIDERED COMPELLING CANDIDATES
Darrell West, vice president and director of governance studies at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, said the election is close because each party is “nominating a strong candidate. Both have compelling personal stories and each of them runs well among political independents.”
Contrary to de Marchi’s criticisms, West said both candidates are running effective political ads. He said a McCain ad called “Maverick” defines the Arizona senator as having “taken on his own party and strong special interests.”
That commercial, West said, “represents a great way to separate McCain” from the unpopular Bush administration.
Meanwhile, West said, “Obama is running ads showing pictures of Bush and McCain together and arguing they are Siamese twins who think the same way. That is an effective way to make the argument that a McCain victory would represent Bush’s third term.” (See “Obama’s National Ads in Olympics Seen as Smart Strategy.”)
West said the fact Obama is black “affects every aspect of this campaign from polling and media coverage to public opinion.” Public opinion polls, he said, have “overestimated support for African-American candidates so that is something Obama needs to worry about.”
White Americans “might tell pollsters they plan to vote for Obama even though they ultimately will not do so,” said West, who in September will speak at a seminar in Germany, organized by the U.S. Embassy in Berlin, on the U.S. electoral process.
CONTEST GETS HOTTER IN SEPTEMBER
“I would not put too much faith in the polls right now,” said political science professor John Geer of Vanderbilt University in Tennessee. “Around September 10th, they will start to matter.”
Regarding the political ads, Geer said McCain’s commercials have drawn more attention than those aired by Obama.
“McCain has gone negative and with some flair. But whether it has changed voters’ minds is far from clear,” he said.
Geer said the “context” for the presidential election favors Obama.
“But I suspect it will remain a close race,” Geer said.
See also “Political Polls Why We Just Can’t Live Without Them.”
