U.S. ELECTIONS | Guide to the 2008 Election
23 April 2008
Clinton’s Pennsylvania Win Extends Democrats’ Nomination Race
Both Democratic candidates for U.S. presidency claim successes in primary
Washington -- After spending more than six weeks crisscrossing Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each claimed success in the state’s Democratic primary April 22.
New York Senator Hillary Clinton won the most votes and a majority of Pennsylvania’s 158 pledged delegates, but she still trails Illinois Senator Barack Obama in the overall delegate count.
Democrats award their delegates proportionally, so even though Clinton finished 10 percentage points ahead of Obama, she likely will receive only about 10 more delegates than Obama when the final votes are tallied, according to the Green Papers, an organization that tracks the awarding of delegates. Before the Pennsylvania contest, Obama led Clinton by 155 delegates.
Clinton’s victory had been expected. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Pennsylvania’s 2007 population of 12.4 million has a higher median age than the nation as a whole, and a higher percentage of white populations. These two groups have been key Clinton supporters in prior nominating contests.
The Pennsylvania results indicated Clinton support among these groups, and from women and union workers, continues.
In Pennsylvania, Obama did well with his core constituency -- particularly college students and African Americans. Although Clinton led in much of the state, Obama was victorious in Philadelphia , Pennsylvania’s largest city.
CANDIDATES THANK SUPPORTERS, LOOK AHEAD
“For six weeks, Senator Obama and I have crisscrossed this state, meeting people up close, being judged side by side, making our best case. You listened, and today you chose,” Clinton said in Philadelphia. “I thank you, Pennsylvania, for deciding I can be that president.
“Some people counted me out and said to drop out,” Clinton said. “Well, the American people don’t quit and they deserve a president who doesn’t quit, either.”
During her speech, Clinton acknowledged she faces one particular challenge in the coming weeks: raising enough money to keep competing.
According to financial reports filed at the beginning of April, Obama's campaign had $42 million cash on hand, compared to Clinton's $9.3 million. Additionally, at that time Clinton's campaign owed $10.3 million to various vendors and consultants.
Encouraging the audience to donate to her campaign via her Web site, Clinton explained, “Your support has meant the difference between winning and losing …. We can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who outspends us so massively.”
The better-funded candidate will be able to run more television advertisements and open more campaign offices in competitive states, such as Indiana, where voters head to the polls May 6.
NEXT CONTESTS IN INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA
Speaking from Evansville, Indiana, Obama congratulated Clinton and thanked Pennsylvania voters.
“There were a lot of folks who didn’t think we could make this a close race when it started. But we worked hard, and we traveled across the state to big cities and small towns,” Obama said. “And now, six weeks later, we closed the gap.
“We rallied people of every age and race and background to our cause. And whether they were inspired for the first time or for the first time in a long time, we registered a record number of voters who will lead our party to victory in November.”
North Carolina also holds a primary May 6. Obama is favored heavily to win that state, partially because its population is similar to that of neighboring South Carolina, where the Illinois senator achieved a 28-percentage-point victory over Clinton in January.
The last states to hold primaries will be Montana and South Dakota on June 3. Guam, West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky and Puerto Rico will hold their nominating contests in May and early June.
In order to become the party’s nominee, Clinton or Obama must earn votes from a majority of delegates -- at least 2,024. But with so few contests left and the proportional system of awarding delegates allowing Clinton and Obama to win delegates in every remaining contest, it is unlikely that either candidate will secure a majority by the time primaries and caucuses conclude.
That would set the stage for counting the party’s superdelegate votes to determine who will be the Democratic nominee. (See “Superdelegates May Decide Democratic Nominee.”)
Although delegates and superdelegates are not counted officially until the Democratic National Convention in August, political experts believe the nomination will be clear before then.
Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia professor of politics, predicted to America.gov that once the nominating contests are complete, the party’s superdelegates will announce their support for either Obama or Clinton. The Democratic Party wants its nominee to be determined before it holds its convention August 25-28 in Denver, Sabato said. (See “Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Seen Ending by July 4.”)
According to the Green Papers, 253 superdelegates have announced they intend to vote for Clinton; 230 say they will vote for Obama. The remaining 312 have not made their intentions known.
Also on April 22, Arizona Senator John McCain won Pennsylvania's little-noticed Republican primary with about 73 percent of the vote. McCain, who already has earned enough delegates to be the party's presumed nominee, did not spend much time campaigning in Pennsylvania.
