16 April 2008
Democrats Try to Win over Pennsylvania 4th's Superdelegate
Hillary Clinton is leading polls in the run-up to a "must-win" primary
Washington -- With Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary the next big contest for Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, undecided voters in the Pennsylvania 4th Congressional District are hearing directly from the candidates and their campaign representatives.
Both candidates are especially eager to win over one undecided Pennsylvania 4th voter -- the district's congressional representative, Jason Altmire. The Democrat who represents the western part of the state is also a superdelegate. Winning his support would put Clinton or Obama one vote closer to the nomination.
Superdelegates, party leaders who can cast a vote for any candidate they choose at the party's convention, are playing an especially influential role in the close 2008 Democratic presidential race. (See “Superdelegates May Decide Democratic Nominee.”)
Both candidates have pursued Altmire for a year. Both had hoped an Altmire endorsement before the Pennsylvania primary would help their campaign in that state. Both still are awaiting Altmire's decision.
"We've had an unprecedented opportunity to see both candidates up close and personal, hear what they have to say," Altmire told CNN April 11. "I want to know who has the best plan for western Pennsylvania and I want to see how my district votes … before I make my decision."
Altmire has said that even though Clinton likely will win the most votes in his district, Obama is gaining popularity. Clinton tends to appeal to blue-collar and union workers and older populations -- demographics heavily represented in the Pennsylvania 4th. Additionally, the district borders Ohio, where Clinton won the Democratic primary by 10 percent on March 4.
Political experts suggest Altmire could face an interesting predicament -- if he supports Obama, he risks angering the majority of his district's Democrats who favor Clinton. If he endorses Clinton, he risks angering his district's conservative voters, many of whom strongly dislike her.
Altmire has said that Clinton's name on the ballot could encourage some conservatives who were not initially planning on voting to cast ballots in support of presumed Republican-nominee John McCain. This could be problematic for Altmire, who faces a rematch with former Republican Congresswoman Melissa Hart in what is expected to be one of the nation’s toughest re-election battles. Conservatives are likely to favor Hart, which could make Altmire's re-election more difficult.
CLINTON, OBAMA COURT PENNSYLVANIA VOTERS
The candidates' supporters have organized gatherings throughout the Pennsylvania 4th, and Clinton has given speeches in some of the district's towns. Many residents also might have heard the candidates speak in nearby Pittsburgh, the state's second-largest city.
Pennsylvania voters care about many issues, but the economy seems to be a dominant concern. Both Clinton and Obama addressed the topic in separate speeches before the Alliance for American Manufacturing April 14 in Pittsburgh. Each candidate criticized China trade practices and pledged to enforce trade agreements more effectively.
"I’m calling for changing our laws to send China a message,” Clinton said. “If you subsidize your exports and hurt our manufacturers, you’ll pay a price.”
Obama said that, if elected, he would, “modernize the steel industry, strengthen our manufacturing base and have a manufacturing policy to open as many markets as we can for American workers.”
A voter who missed seeing the candidates in person probably saw their television ads. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Clinton has spent $2.2 million and Obama has spent $6.5 million on television advertisements in the state thus far.
Clinton long has been favored to win Pennsylvania, a state with 158 pledged delegates to award -- the most among states that have not yet held nominating contests. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Pennsylvania’s 2007 population of 12.4 million has a higher median age than the nation as a whole, and a higher percentage of white populations, which helps Clinton because voters like these have been her key supporters. Although polls currently show Clinton in the lead, the size of that lead varies greatly from poll to poll -- from as little as 3 percent to as much as 20 percent.
If Clinton fails to win the most delegates in Pennsylvania, the Democratic race effectively will be over, political analyst Larry Sabato has predicted. (See “Democratic Nomination Race Seen Ending By July 4.”)
Because delegates are awarded proportionally, a Pennsylvania victory for Clinton will leave her still trailing Obama in the delegate count. Obama currently leads by 163 delegates. (See “Path to the Presidential Nomination.”)
After Pennsylvania, Democratic contests will be held in nine states and territories. The ones likely to receive the most attention are Indiana and North Carolina, both on May 6. The last states to hold primaries are Montana and South Dakota on June 3. Nominating contests also will be held in Guam, West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.
