14 February 2008
U.S. Automakers Follow Different Paths to Advanced Vehicles
Uncertainty about demand makes producers cautious
This article is the first in a two-part series on future auto technologies.
Washington -- Driving the 2004 Toyota Prius is a terrific experience for Piotr Gajewski of Rockville, Maryland -- so much so that the artistic director and conductor of the National Philharmonic and his wife bought another gasoline-electric auto: a Ford Mercury Mariner sport utility vehicle.
U.S.-based automakers and policymakers hope more car buyers will follow the example of consumers such as the Gajewskis. If they do, innovative automotive technologies can help the United States reduce its carbon dioxide emissions and petroleum dependency.
Transitioning to the next generation of vehicles will present a tremendous challenge to automakers and related industries, auto executives and experts say. These challenges include technological barriers, uncertainty about demand and huge investments at a time when U.S. producers are restructuring their operations amid financial losses.
At a January 23 symposium at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington, auto executives and experts agreed that no single technology will fit the needs of all markets and meet all expectations.
Therefore, U.S.-based automakers pursue different technologies with different potentials and benefits that together they say will transform the auto industry.
Plug-in, gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, which can be recharged from an external electrical outlet, promise to have a longer driving range and lower running costs than current hybrid cars. Future plug-ins will run solely on electricity. Flexible (flex) fuel vehicles, which run on a blend of gasoline and ethanol known as E85, promise to reduce oil consumption. Fuel cell vehicles do not use petroleum, nor do they emit carbon emissions.
In addition to advances in power-train technology, materials are changing; ultra-light steel or advanced polymer composites used to build cars have huge fuel-saving potential. Because some lightweight materials are more crash-resistant than steel, using them can save lives and oil, says Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nongovernmental sustainable management group. (See "Reinventing the Wheels: The Automotive Efficiency Revolution.")
General Motors, for example, is committed to flex fuel and plug-ins and conducts the largest fuel-cell auto market test. Toyota has vowed to deliver a “significant” fleet of plug-in hybrid vehicles, powered by lithium-ion batteries by 2010. And Daimler Chrysler bets on advanced diesel autos and plug-ins.
Independent auto manufacturers also have entered the technology race. At the January Detroit Auto Show, Fisker Coachworks showed the Karma plug-in, which was hailed by experts as a marvel of design and engineering. Also, an international academic consortium put together by Massachusetts Institute of Technology students plans to build in three years a hyperefficient, supersafe and environmentally friendly passenger car called VDS Vision. (See "Hyperefficient, Supersafe Car Envisioned by International Group.")
Ed Wall of the Energy Department cites hybrid plug-ins and vehicles fueled by cellulosic ethanol as the most promising technologies among many supported by the government. Cellulosic ethanol, produced from biomass such as switchgrass and woodchip, offers more net energy and carbon dioxide emission savings than ethanol derived from other materials. However, cellulosic ethanol production is yet to be commercialized.
In the near future, the auto industry will focus on flex fuel vehicles, hybrids and improvements in internal combustion technology, experts say.
Gajewski plans to continue buying advanced vehicles. In his Prius, he says, he appreciates fuel savings, longer times between refueling stops and a comforting thought that the car makes him more environmentally friendly.
“It is easy to get used to all these,” he said. “There is no going back.”
But automakers worry that many customers may shun more efficient and cleaner vehicles brought to the market because at least initially they will cost more and will require some changes in driving habits. Although Toyota’s Prius has become a tremendous success since it was introduced in the U.S. market in 2004, polls such as the annual survey of buyers’ attitudes by Synovate, indicate that most American consumers do not want to pay more for the E85 blend and do not show much enthusiasm for hybrids either. Most do not know much about more advanced auto technologies.
Automakers look to the government to help it entice consumers to buy more advanced vehicles. They say incentives for consumers such as tax credits would help boost demand for advanced vehicles and accelerate their adoption. And a consumer education campaign can help broaden the awareness of new technologies.
Some local and state governments, utilities, businesses and nongovernmental groups already have joined forces to promote plug-in hybrids and flex fuel vehicles through fleet orders, rebates, incentives, endorsements and other measures. For example, a campaign launched in 2006 in Austin, Texas, has expanded across the nation and now includes more than 600 partners in 40 states.
However, experts say, even the greatest government support will not matter if the industry does not offer attractive models and features other than new engine technology to woo car buyers.
